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Will Smith is an Intriguing Option For Blue Jays' Bullpen
The free-agent relief market is still kicking, and if the Blue Jays fancy an addition or two, there are some excellent options.
Left-hander Will Smith would be on the radar. Smith’s pitching profile is obviously a good fit. The Jays need another lefty (we discussed this in the Matt Moore piece), which is a bonus, but there’s so much more the 33-year-old has to offer.
First, his slider is fantastic. It’s a true wipeout pitch. According to Baseball Savant, hitters had a.149 xBA against the slider last season (the ninth-best in MLB), and it was worth minus-8 runs. An elite chase rate also adds a little icing to the pitch, too. Smith got a 46.1% whiff rate with the slider in 2022, which, combined with his elite 97th-percentile chase, makes him one of the craftiest relievers in baseball.
Good pitchers are helpful, but sometimes good pitches take bullpens to the next level. A year ago, the Blue Jays relief core lacked that one wipeout offspeed. Jordan Romano, Yimi García, and Tim Mayza all used excellent fastballs, but the crew last year lacked a deadly slider or a power curve that makes hitters spin (think Alek Manoah’s frisbee slider or Kevin Gausman’s splitter).
Think of the AL Wild Card Round versus the Mariners last October. Toronto’s bullpen choked in Game 2 largely due to little inefficiencies that built to a devastating climax, but also because there was no fireman to shut things down with a key strikeout. Anthony Bass’s slider (minus-7 run value) and Romano’s breaking ball (-7) were the closest the Jays had to an x-factor breaking pitch. In a short postseason series, it just wasn’t enough.
Seattle’s bullpen, on the other hand, had no shortage of terrifying relievers with mind-bending breaking pitches. Andrés Muñoz was arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher last season – his unhittable slider (-20 run value) pared with a running, triple-digit fastball carried him to a glorious season. Even a guy like Matt Brash, whose season in its entirety was wonky, became a fearsome postseason reliever thanks to his fall-off-the-table slider.
On the back end of his career, Smith doesn’t possess the intimidation factor of a Muñoz or the vigor of a Brash, but he’s been in the getting-people-out game for a decade. His recipe is simple; it’s been well-practiced. Like a Chris Bassitt or a Gausman, Smith knows who he is and gets the job done. That’s the guy you want in a heart-racing postseason contest.
Smith owns a career 114 ERA+ during the regular season. He’s been even better in the playoffs, boosting his resume by closing the World Series for the Braves in 2021. In 20 playoff appearances, the lefty has a 1.47 ERA with only one homer allowed. The strikeouts dip to 7.9 K/9, but so do the walks, and he gets out, which is ultimately most important.
This winter, the Blue Jays revamped their roster with an eye toward postseason form. Platoon veterans, such as Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt, will make a serious difference on and off the field. Smith moves the needle with respect to character and veteran callousness. Smith might be a little anti-fun – his beef with Juan Soto last year was quite funny – but he’ll fit fine in the Blue Jays clubhouse.
Price shouldn’t be an issue, as the Blue Jays will be over the $233-million luxury tax this year. On a one-year deal, Smith should command between $8 and $10 million. For a two-year pact, the price might be $15 million. With the unique skillset Smith offers, that’s well worth the cash.
