Blue Jays' Final Series Presents A Complicated Playoff Preview

The Blue Jays' final series against the Rays is full of gamesmanship with a potential playoff matchup looming.

Baseball is full of games within games. The Blue Jays' final regular season series of 2023 takes that to another level.

Entering Friday's series opener against the Rays, the Blue Jays had an 80% chance of matching up with the very same Tampa team next week in the Wild-Card playoff round. On paper, the Rays don't have much to play for with a locked-in postseason spot. But, the gamesmanship of this three-game set is real.

“They can't hide from us, we can't hide from them," Rays manager Kevin Cash said. "We gotta play and we're gonna make sure the pitchers that we need to pitch are gonna pitch.”

The Rays reshuffled their rotation last week so two of their presumptive playoff starters (Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin) would avoid the Toronto series and be rested for October. But, the Jays still get a taste of their potential pitching opponents.

As Cash noted, the Rays can't completely hide their arms from Toronto's bats. On Friday, Tampa Bay started with right-hander Aaron Civale, who is currently slated to pitch a potential Game 3 of the playoff series next week. The Jays knocked him for two hits, two walks, and a run before Cash came out to relieve Civale after 1.2 innings of work. 

Following the starter, Tampa trotted out four different relievers who the Jays greeted with 10 more runs. While none of the relief pitchers Tampa tossed on Friday expect to be back-end arms for a playoff game, the Rays still have two games to cover over the weekend where the Jays will certainly get a glimpse at Andrew Kittredge and Pete Fairbanks.

On the hitting side, the Rays plan to buy some rest for regulars during the three-game set in Toronto. On Friday, it was shortstop Taylor Walls' turn while others like Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena will surely sit games over the weekend. But, can the Rays afford to fully lean into the rest, benching starters and allowing the Jays to rack up easy wins and momentum before heading into October?

"You want to be respectful of the situation, but we are going to prioritize our guys," Cash said. "Making sure that they are fresh and ready to go as much as possible.

For Toronto, things are much more straightforward — for now. By happenstance and long-ago rotation shuffling, Toronto had Chris Bassitt and José Berríos starting prior to this series — lining up for potential playoff outings — and they can bump back Kevin Gausman's Game 162 outing to October if the finale is meaningless. After starting Yusei Kikuchi on Friday, the Jays will send out Hyun Jin Ryu on Saturday and TBD for the 162.

There will be no resting for Toronto, either, until their October ticket is formally punched. Friday's win over the Rays moved the Blue Jays' playoff magic number down to one — meaning any more Toronto wins or Seattle losses will formally clinch the playoffs.

"You gotta focus on tonight. I don't love talking about things that are gonna maybe transpire next week," Schneider said. "I like focusing on the task at hand."

After that, the gamesmanship shifts to both sides. The weekend could be filled with decisions of rest vs rust, overexposing relievers, and prioritizing health. It may be more mind games and overthink than anything else, but it could set up a particularly familiar matchup at Tropicana Field next week.