Blue Jays Free Agent Fits: Correa vs. Story vs. Bryant

While the lockout has halted baseball’s free agent frenzy, the Blue Jays aren’t finished spending just yet.

On Thursday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the Blue Jays were a “mystery entrant” in the Corey Seager sweepstakes, but were allegedly unwilling to watch the Rangers’ mammoth offer of $325 million over 10 years.

So, the Blue Jays didn’t land the star shortstop, but the legitimate pursuit of Seager indicates Toronto’s front office is fine with adding expensive talent—even after shelling out $110 million to Kevin Gausman.

With that philosophy in mind, let’s look at three remaining 'big fish' free-agent infielders and assess whether the Blue Jays would be wise to make a play on them when free agency re-opens:

*All contract projections from MLB Trade Rumors; all player ages by Opening Day 2022.

SS Carlos Correa

Age: 27

Bats: Right

Games played: 752 over eight seasons

Career OPS: .837

Tied to qualifying offer: Yes

Projected contract: 10 years, $320 million ($32M AAV)

After watching Texas sign Seager and the Tigers hand out six years and $140 million to Javier Báez—who rocks a career OBP of .307—it’d be no surprise if anyone found Carlos Correa at home maniacally laughing and twirling his moustache.

This winter’s market for high-end shortstops is outrageous, meaning Correa will be the most sought-after position player once the market opens again. But should the Blue Jays be interested?

First, Correa is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball—his 12 Outs Above Average (OAA), per Statcast, ranked fourth among AL infielders in 2021. The Blue Jays’ entire infield generated a collective -3 OAA last season.

Toronto desperately needs to improve on defense, but Correa is also one of the best middle infielders in baseball. Since 2017, Correa ranks second among all MLB shortstops with a 129 wRC+. He’s also performed in the playoffs, hitting 18 home runs with a .849 OPS in 79 postseason games.

Long-term financial flexibility represents the biggest impediment to the Correa-Blue Jays reunion, and signing the shortstop to a seven-plus year deal will inevitably hurt other parts of the roster.

Under the previous CBA, Teoscar Hernández would hit free agency in 2024, while Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette would both hit free agency in 2026. The Blue Jays will likely entertain long-term contracts to buy out Guerrero and Bichette’s arbitration years, and if Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182-million contract is a benchmark, that doesn’t leave much wiggle room for a Correa mega-deal.

It’s also worth considering how Bichette would handle a new double play partner, since signing Correa would almost guarantee Bichette moves to second base.

It’d be a surprising, but exciting move for the Blue Jays to make. A Correa signing should fire up the fans, as Toronto would acquire one of the most proven shortstops in baseball. It’d be equally distressing, though, because it clouds the long-term future of some of the Blue Jays’ incumbent young stars.

SS Trevor Story

Age: 29

Bats: Right

Games played: 745 over six seasons

Career OPS: .863

Tied to qualifying offer: Yes

Projected contract: Six years, $126 million (21M AAV)

A couple years older than Correa—and considerably weaker than him defensively—Trevor Story is projected to land a deal with lots of term, but at a much lower price. There are a few reasons the Blue Jays should be interested in the 29-year-old.

Since he entered the league in 2016, Story’s been a consistent power hitter, slugging at least 24 home runs every year, excluding the shortened 2020 season where he was on pace for 30 longballs. After Marcus Semien and his 45-home run production migrated south to Texas, the Blue Jays need some added pop and could use Story’s speed—he ranked in the 88th percentile in sprint speed in 2021—if they want to re-create last season’s deadly batting order.

The Coors Field effect is also something to consider, and Story is no exception (.962 career OPS at home versus .762 OPS on the road), but Toronto reportedly showed continued interest at this year’s trade deadline, despite Story also going through a down year in 2020.

Story has played all 745 career games at shortstop but accounted for a -5 and -6 OAA in 2020 and 2021, respectively, making him a perfect candidate to switch to a full-time second base or third-base gig. Story isn’t a stellar defender like Correa or Báez, but he’s a steadier option than Cavan Biggio and offers infinitely more offensive upside than Santiago Espinal.

For $21 million annually over four-to-five years—should Story actually sign a deal like that—the Blue Jays should be all over him.

3B/1B/OF Kris Bryant

Age: 30

Bats: Right

Games played: 884 over seven seasons

Career OPS: .880

Tied to qualifying offer: No

Projected contract: Six years, $160 million ($26.66M AAV)

Kris Bryant bounced back nicely this past season, earning an All-Star nod and putting a horrendous 2020 behind him. The 2016 NL MVP hasn’t quite lived up to the grand expectations placed on him early in his career, but he’s usually good for 20-plus home runs and a .350 OBP if he stays healthy for a full season.

The Blue Jays need Bryant’s bat in the middle of the order, but he’s more of a defensive enigma than the other two players on this list. The 30-year-old has experience playing corner infield and all three outfield positions, but, for the most part, he’s a below average fielder at each position. According to Statcast, Bryant played left and center field at a league-average level, but still ranked in the first percentile in OOA in 2021.

Several teams, including the Phillies and Mariners, are reportedly interested in Bryant. Sources told Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair the Blue Jays have been “aggressive” but “disciplined” in free agency this season, always sticking to their valuation. When another team overpays, the Jays don’t feel pressured to match—it happened with Seager and Semien. Toronto will use the same approach with Bryant.

The interest is there—Bryant was once drafted by the Blue Jays, and he’d become a fan favourite if he did take his talents to Canada—but the price must make sense. Don’t expect Toronto’s front office to blow past its valuation of Bryant and outbid the field, especially given how much Blue Jays management values quality defense.

H/T Jeff Passan, MLB Trade Rumors, Jeff Blair