Why the Atlanta Braves didn't go get a starting pitcher at the trade deadline
MLB's Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while several prominent pitchers changed hands - including Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Aaron Civale, and Lance Lynn - the Atlanta Braves didn't go out and acquire a starter.
And that's okay.
The Atlanta Braves felt like they could afford to stand pat on the starting pitching front because they have Max Fried scheduled to return this weekend as another front-line starter and enough back-end rotation options to make it through the rest of the regular season.
When looking at the prospects other teams gave up for starting pitchers, I understand the decision by GM Alex Anthopoulos - multiple organizational top 30 prospects were moved over the last few days, including a Top 100 prospect in Tampa Bay's Kyle Manzardo, going to the Cleveland Guardians for Aaron Civale.
With a farm system that entered the season ranked towards, if not at, the bottom of MLB, Atlanta just couldn't afford to move a top prospect to get a rental pitcher for the stretch run.
Instead, Atlanta's rotation for the rest of the regular season is going to look something like this:
Max Fried
Spencer Strider
Charlie Morton
Bryce Elder
Michael Soroka/AJ Smith-Shawver/Jared Shuster/Yonny Chirinos/Dylan Dodd/Allan Winans
That's six different options on the 40-man roster for the final rotation spot, and that's not even including Kyle Wright, who is in the midst of a throwing program. He finished his first bullpen session with no lingering soreness and is, as of now, still tracking for a September return.
And it's hard to argue with the results. Atlanta's used 12 different starting pitchers, if you disregard the three relievers who started bullpen games as openers. They've gotten exactly five starts from their staff ace, Fried, and only five starts from last year's wins leader for all of MLB in Kyle Wright.
Despite that, Atlanta's starters had the 2nd best ERA in the National League at the end of July, sitting at 3.99.
Now, Atlanta wasn't completely silent at the trade deadline. Over the past week, Atlanta's acquired lefty Taylor Hearn (who was flipped after one appearance to Kansas City for infielder Nicky Lopez), RHP Pierce Johnson, and LHP Brad Hand. Add to that the acquisition of Ben Heller back in June from Tampa Bay, the return of AJ Minter on Monday, and the expected returns of both Dylan Lee and Jesse Chavez in the coming weeks and you're beginning to approach "Night Shift" levels of strength in the pen.
But Atlanta wasn't going to give up a top prospect to get some of these available arms at the deadline. And it wasn't just the big fish with additional control like Civale, Verlander, and Scherzer that had a high price. Even the rental players took legitimate prospects - Philadelphia traded organizational top 5 prospect Hao-Yu Lee, seen as their 2nd baseman of the future, for two months of RHP Michael Lorenzen of the Detroit Tigers. (The equivalent deal for Atlanta would have been organizational Top 5 prospect 3B Ignacio Alvarez.)
No, Atlanta's 11-game divisional lead (by FAR the largest in baseball) allows them some runway to get better on the margins of the roster and wait for their key contributors - Fried, Chavez, Lee, Wright - to get healthy again. The roster that Alex Anthopoulos has built has been able to weather injuries to 2/5ths of the starting rotation, both catchers, the starting centerfielder, and the starting shortstop to put up a MLB-best .644 winning percentage through the first 104 games of the season.
Atlanta went out and fortified the bullpen, got arguably the best defending utility infielder in baseball in Nicky Lopez, and kept the ship moving straight.
Because this is a team that's skilled enough, talented enough, and playing well enough to win the World Series.
Alex Anthopoulos didn't need to "fix" anything at the trade deadline, because nothing was broken.
He just made sure the course was true and the ship's steady.
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