Braves in great shape in the NL East

The Atlanta Braves are 16-11 and have a one-man starting rotation. Let me repeat that. The Atlanta Braves are 16-11 and have a one-man starting rotation.

Incredible.

Oh, and their top two hitters (Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Ozzie Albies) in the lineup are out, along with one more regular (Nick Markakis). That’s one-third of their lineup.

And they are 16-11.

Incredible.

The Braves have a two-game lead on the Miami Marlins (11-10). Since we’re worried about winning percentage this season, the Braves have a .593 mark, while the Marlins are at .524.

The Mets are 12-14, but they are missing four games this weekend with a COVID crisis. The Nationals are 10-14 and have lost Stephen Strasburg for the rest of the season. And the Phillies are 9-14 and have the worst bullpen known to mankind.

So, it looks good for the Braves in 2020 to win the division, right?

Well, yes, it does. They look like the best team, even with all the injuries and a shaky rotation. They are surviving having just one legit starter in the rotation, at least for now.

Let’s look at who the Braves have left in their 33 remaining regular season games:

Philadelphia (4), NY Yankees (2), Boston (6), Washington (8), Miami (7), Baltimore (3), NY Mets (3).

Now, since the NL East is struggling overall, it’s easy to say this, but the remaining games on the schedule include just two teams with winning records right now: the Yankees (16-9) and the Marlins (11-10).

While the Orioles (13-14) have played better this year than expected, they are still not a very talented team. The Red Sox (9-19) are awful this season. And so far against the NL East, the Braves are 12-6. They’ve struggled in interleague play (4-5) and that includes six games against the Yankees and Rays (18-10).

The remaining schedule includes two-thirds of the games being played against NL East opponents. Again, the division is not what it was expected to be this season.

Along with the Mets’ COVID situation, New York’s rotation has been worse than Atlanta’s starters. The Mets’ rotation ERA is 5.23, while the Braves are at 5.19. New York has lost Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman, while Michael Wacha is on the injured list and Steven Matz (9.00 ERA in five starts) has been banished to the bullpen. Even rookie David Peterson, who showed great promise in his first four starts, is on the injured list with a shoulder issue.

The Nationals are obviously not the same team they were a year ago when they won it all. Stephen Strasburg’s season is over, as he will have surgery next week on Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. Max Scherzer’s ERA is 4.31, so he’s been hittable this season compared to what he’s done in the past. Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 3.99, and Anibal Sanchez has been horrible (0-3, 8.50 ERA).

While the Phillies bullpen could be improved with Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree and David Hale, they are desperate to stop the bleeding on a year that has, literally, been ruined this season by the bullpen.

What would Philadelphia’s record be if the bullpen ERA was not 8.29?

Of course, we could ask what the Braves record would have been after 27 games with a rotation that had at least three legit starting pitchers. Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint are two pitchers who should be fifth starters, trying to find their way. While Robbie Erlin and Josh Tomlin are basically openers, hoping to get through the fourth inning before turning it over to the bullpen.

Let’s not bury the lead here. All of this information should give you the impression the Braves have a great chance to win the division, and even with this being a different year, winning it three times in a row would be a great thing.

We’re just over a week away from the trading deadline, and the expectation is GM Alex Anthopoulos will do something to help the Braves rotation. It’s mandatory that happens, as winning this division will do nothing to guarantee success in October if the rotation still only has Max Fried as its legit starter.

But as far as the division goes, it looks like the Braves have an excellent shot at winning their third straight division title. That would be the longest streak of one team winning the division since the Phillies won five in a row from 2007 through 2011.

Listen to The Bill Shanks Show weekdays at 3:00 p.m. ET on 93.1 FM in Macon, 105.9 FM in Warner Robins, 98.3 FM in South Central Georgia and online at TheSuperStations.com. Follow Bill on Twitter @billshanks and email him at thebillshanksshow@yahoo.com.