The Atlanta Braves Offense is Due Some Good Luck
The Atlanta Braves are off to a great start in 2023, and that's despite a ton of injuries and some bad luck offensively in big spots.
While the all-or-nothing approach for many of the Braves hitters can lead to slumps at times when the long ball isn't coming, it's still been a head-scratcher that the Braves offense hasn't done even more.
And that's not to say this offense has been bad -- they're second in all of baseball with an OPS of .802 and tied for fifth in runs scored.
This has pretty easily been a top 10 offense -- perhaps even top five -- but yet if you've watched all of their games it just feels like they could still be even better.
Struggles with RISP
A big reason for the frustrations offensively is that the Braves have been one of the worst teams in baseball with runners in scoring position (RISP).
The team is third in all of baseball in on-base percentage at .338, so they've had plenty of baserunners. But bringing those runners in with something other than a home run has been an issue.
The Braves are 27th in average (.231) with RISP and they've grounded into the third-most double-plays (15).
And despite the high overall OBP, the Braves have just the 17th most at-bats with RISP. Too many times runners are getting stuck on first, or they're hitting into a double-play and not giving the runner a chance to reach scoring position.
Here are the individual averages with RISP for those who have 10 or more at-bats:
1. Vaughn Grissom -- .439 (16 ABs)
2. Orlando Arcia -- .400 (15 ABs)
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. -- .313 (32 ABs)
4. Sean Murphy -- .297 (37 ABs)
5. Ozzie Albies -- .271 (48 ABs)
6. Kevin Pillar -- .250 (16 ABs)
7. Eddie Rosario -- .222 (27 ABs)
8. Michael Harris II -- .176 (17 ABs)
9. Matt Olson -- .159 (44 ABs)
10. Austin Riley -- .140 (43 ABs)
11. Sam Hilliard -- .091 (11 ABs)
12. Marcell Ozuna -- .048 (21 ABs)
It's clearly not great when the guys who have been batting second and third in your lineup all year and have the second and third most at-bats with RISP are hitting under .200 in those situations.
Those two have to get going and history tells us they will. Last year Olson and Riley hit .268 and .247 respectively with RISP.
While those numbers still aren't great for your big, top-of-the-order bats, it's still about league average.
BABIP has not been kind with the hard contact
Other than the law averages playing out over 162, another reason to be quite hopeful that these numbers will improve and the Braves will start to score even more runs is that they've had some terrible luck with balls in play.
They have the fourth-lowest BABIP with RISP at .269, which would have been the lowest in all of baseball last year. The Braves had a .305 average with RISP last year, which ranked 10th in all of baseball.
And yes, they strike out a good bit in these situations (23.2% of the time), but when they do make contact it's loud.
They lead all of baseball with a 39.7% hard contact rate with RISP, according to FanGraphs. And they have the lowest rate of soft contact in those situations at just 9.3% of the time.
That BABIP mixed with the hard contact rate just doesn't add up and points to the fact the Braves have had some tough luck with runners in scoring position. We've seen over the last week alone several great plays in the outfield that robbed the Braves of runs.
RISP is typically something that averages out during a season. Right now the Braves haven't had much luck and they're still 10 games over .500. Once the numbers with RISP start to level out, you'll see this offense become the best in baseball like many thought it would be.
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