Is it time to panic?

The Atlanta Braves are now behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL Divisional Series, thanks to Saturday night's 3-0 victory.

I don't think it's time to panic.

There's a few reasons why it's okay to be concerned, yeah, but we're not at panic yet.

Atlanta's statistical production was remarkably close to Philly's in a bunch of categories (except, obviously, runs scored): Atlanta had five hits to Philly's six. Atlanta had three walks, to Philly's four, and struck out only eight times to Philly's eleven.

Honestly, a lot of what happened tonight came down to luck, both good for the Phillies and bad for the Braves.

Ozzie's stolen base being overturned on review was bad luck - there wasn't clear evidence that the call was wrong. The Sean Murphy catcher's interference was bad luck - Murphy said he thought the bat touched his glove, but admitted he didn't feel it and it sure didn't look like it did on any replay angle. Ozzie's was overturned, Sean's was not. Both bad luck for the Braves.

Atlanta had eight hard hit balls (95 MPH exit velo or better) - only three of them fell for base hits, with Matt Olson's eighth-inning flyout actually being a home run in Wrigley Field, per Statcast. Three other hard hit balls, Ozuna's 6th inning lineout (108.7 off the bat, xBA of .910) and balls by both Ozzie Albies (103.4, xBA of .590) and Michael Harris II (102.5, xBA of .510) usually fall and just...didn't.

We never talk about luck, but it's a thing in baseball. If you've ever watched the movie "Moneyball" starring Brad Pitt (based on the book by Michael Lewis), despite what might be on the screen, spoiler alert the Oakland A's never actually win the World Series. Because luck is so flukey in the small sample of a postseason series, doubly so for a five-game one. Pitt's character of GM Billy Beane addresses this in the movie:

"My (stuff) doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f****** luck."

Atlanta had a LOT of bad luck in this one.

Philly also got lucky in that every single move to the bullpen paid off. Pulling Suarez after only one hit allowed worked out. Going to rookie Orion Kerkering, who had only three career appearances in the majors, worked out. They used seven different pitchers, and every single one of them worked out in the end.

Suffice to say, that doesn't always happen.

You play that game 10 times and they all finish differently, because some of these decisions go slightly different.

So no, don't panic. Be concerned, yeah. You've gotta hope Max Fried and the offense can win one on Monday and then you've gotta go take one in Citizens Bank Park next week to even force a game five.

But don't PANIC. So many things happened in this game that don't normally happen. And Atlanta's processes, for the most part, were good.

Just hope Lady Luck (and the baseball gods) are on our side.

Stay locked in to Braves Today for all your coverage of the National League Divisional Series and Atlanta's 2023 postseason!

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