Is the #2 seed in the National League a better draw than the #1 seed?

The Atlanta Braves are having a season for the ages. Behind a blistering offense, paced by a record-setting MVP candidate in right field, Atlanta's on pace for 101 wins and MLB or team records in home runs, actual bases, stolen bases, and more.

Buuuuuut, looming a mere four games behind Atlanta are the Los Angeles Dodgers, winners of eight of their last ten and poised to host the Braves for a four game set starting Thursday night. There's a good chance that the winner of the Dodgers series ends up finishing the season with the best record in the National League and clinching home-field advantage in the postseason.

Which begs the question...is a #2 seed actually better?

I'm not proposing Atlanta deliberately lose games - this franchise isn't wired in a way where they could even do that.

But I'm making the case that if it happens, it's not that bad out of an outcome.

Hear me out.

Here's the projected playoff matchups as of Wednesday morning, per MLB.com:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Byes: Braves (1) and Dodgers (2)

Wild Card series matchups

Giants (6) at Brewers (3)

Cubs (5) at Phillies (4)

Just missed: D-backs (0.5 game out of WC), Reds (2 games), Marlins (3 games)

Division Series matchups

Giants (6) or Brewers (3) at Dodgers (2)

Cubs (5) or Phillies (4) at Braves (1)

If Atlanta finishes with the #1 seed in the National League, their reward is...a date with either the Philadelphia Phillies, a division rival who eliminated them from the postseason last year on the way to the World Series, or the Chicago Cubs, who went 2-1 against Atlanta this season and fought through a crowded Wild Card field to make the postseason?

Meanwhile, Los Angeles would get...the San Francisco Giants, their division rival they see all the time, or the Milwaukee Brewers, winners of the weakest division in the National League who barely have a positive run differential (+21)?

I'm not saying it's not fair, but I'm saying it's not an equivalent challenge.

I'd rather face the weakest Wild Card or the weakest Division Champ over facing either the top Wild Card team or the team that knocked off the top Wild Card team.

So home field isn't important, right?

That's not what the numbers say

The Braves record in Dodger Stadium is...not great. Dating back to the start of 2018, Atlanta's 2-10 at Dodger Stadium, including a 1-4 record in the postseason.

When the Braves won the World Series in 2021, they went 3-0 in Atlanta for the NL Championship Series and only 1-2 at Dodger Stadium.

(They had home-field advantage despite the worse regular season record because Atlanta won the East while the Dodgers were a Wild-Card team).

That's also not what the players say

Reliever AJ Minter, speaking to David O'Brien of The Athletic a few weeks ago, talked about that 2021 World Series run and the importance of home field advantage:

“That’s, I feel like, the whole reason why we did win the World Series. If we didn’t have home-field advantage, it would have been hard to beat the Dodgers in the LCS,” Minter said. “If you look back, that’s kind of what helped us win the World Series. That’s 100 percent important. We know how impactful, how much playing at home field is an advantage in Atlanta with the fans. We take pride in that. We want to deliver and give our city home-field advantage, for them to come out and witness more games.”

I'll stick with my prediction from the podcast - the team that wins the series in Los Angeles this week is probably the team that finishes the regular season with home field advantage.

The rotation lines up well. The hitters are hot right now. Let's stand eye-to-eye with them and see who blinks first.

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