Braves Today

The Atlanta Braves biggest threat to winning the NL East isn't the Marlins, it's the Phillies

The Miami Marlins just don't have what it takes to be a legitimate contender in 2023
Lindsay Crosby|
The Atlanta Braves biggest threat to winning the NL East isn't the Marlins, it's the Phillies
The Atlanta Braves biggest threat to winning the NL East isn't the Marlins, it's the Phillies

There's been this weird idea floating around Marlins Twitter the last few days: If you ignore the head to head matchup, the 51-39 Miami Marlins are just as good as the 59-28 Atlanta Braves. 

See for yourself: 

Setting aside the idea that this is obvious bad-faith engagement farming, designed to get clicks and attention on social media, there's a few issues with this concept. 

Issue one: You can't ignore the head to head, obviously - Atlanta's 9-1 against Miami this season, outscoring the Fish by 64 runs (83 to 29) in those games. Believe it or not, every game of the season matters. 

Issue two: It's hard to take the Marlins seriously when not only can they not beat Atlanta, they're getting beat by former Braves. 

Miami was beating Philadelphia 3-1 in the 9th inning last night, seemingly cruising to another win. The victory brings them to....wait, I'm being told something happened. 

Oh, right: Miami gave up three runs in the 9th to lose, 4-3. The winning run was scored for Philly by former Braves prospect Cristian Pache, who had a pinch-hit solo shot with two outs in the 9th for the winning run. 

The Marlins went 17-7 in the month of June, and saw their deficit in the division GROW from 4.5 games to 7.0, and it's currently at 9.5 after last night's Phillies loss. They have a six-game win streak, two five-game win streaks, and everything else is four games or less and there's a rather interesting coincidence here: Those streaks always seem to coincide when the Marlins play bad teams. The six game win streak was after consecutive series wins against the 25-65 Oakland A's and 25-64 Kansas City Royals. The first five game win streak was majorly thanks to a three-game set against the 34-54 Washington Nationals. 

Miami's run differential for the season is -11, meaning they've allowed more runs (385) then they've scored (374). Their Pythagorean win/loss record, meaning their estimated win/loss record based on their scoring versus their opponents, is 44-46

So how is Miami doing it? Easy: They're beating bad teams. Miami's 28-15 against teams with losing records, while they're only 23-24 against teams with winning records. (For context, Atlanta's 25-10 against teams with losing records and 34-18 against teams with winning records. Oh, and they're the best in baseball when it comes to playing the best teams.)

To be the best, you've gotta beat the best. 

Instead, Miami played one of the easiest schedules in baseball in June, and took advantage of it to pad their record. 

By comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies are legitimately HOT right now. They're 23-7 in their last 30 games. Their bullpen hasn't allowed a run in 25.1 innings, and they're winning games virtually on pitching alone: This Phillies team has not hit for much power, and the offense goes quiet for stretches. 

But they're getting it done. And when those bats come around, as we saw in the postseason last year, they can take down anyone. 

Which is more than you can say for Miami. 

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Lindsay Crosby
LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com

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