Atlanta Braves 2016 Draft Review

The Braves were one of the worst teams in baseball in 2015. The 67-95 record was the worst record in 25 years for the organization.

It was the first year of the rebuild, so it wasn’t unexpected. Thanks to the bad record, the Braves had the third overall pick in the draft, the highest the Braves had drafted since 1991 when they took Arizona State outfielder Mike Kelly with the second overall pick.

Several players were linked to Atlanta. Executive John Hart liked Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel, who was taken second by the Reds. Some inside the organization liked Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis, who went to Seattle at 11. Jay Groome, who at that time was called Jason, was linked to almost everyone including the Braves. He fell to the Red Sox at pick 12.

The Braves liked New York high school right-hander Ian Anderson from the very beginning. They also had a plan. While most believed Anderson would be picked in the 8-14 range, the Braves thought if they could get him with the third pick, they could save a little money and also get two more high school arms.

They had identified left-hander Joey Wentz, a tall left-hander from Prairie Village, Kan. and believed he’d be available with their 40 pick. The Braves got that in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera trade the previous July. Then the Braves wanted another high school left-hander, Kyle Muller, with their second-round pick #44 overall.

The draft could not have fallen more perfectly. The Braves got Anderson at number three. He’s now their top pitching prospect and is close to being ready for the big leagues. Wentz was traded to the Tigers in the Shane Greene trade last summer. While Greene struggled last summer, he could still make that trade look good if he pitches effectively this season. And then Muller was available at 44. Muller started slow, but he’s now also one of Atlanta’s top pitching prospects.

Are there any top prospects the Braves may look back on, in hindsight, and regret not taking? Well, Gavin Lux is rated as the second-best prospect in baseball. He was taken by the Dodgers at pick 20 in the first round.

The Astros believed tall right-hander Forrest Whitley was the best high school pitcher in the draft. He fell to Houston at pick 17 and is now higher rated than Anderson. So is Matt Manning, who was taken 9 overall by the Tigers.

St. Louis prospect Dylan Carlson is rated as the 17 best prospect in baseball by MLB.com. He was taken 33 overall by the Cardinals. Carter Kieboom is the 21 best prospect. He was taken 28 overall by the Nationals.

The two players that stand out in the second round that the Braves might regret passing on is Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who was taken 64 by New York, and the 66 overall pick Bo Bichette, who is now one of the top young players in the American League with Toronto.4

Atlanta took Brett Cumberland with the 76 overall pick. He was put in the trade with Baltimore that brought Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to Atlanta. Cumberland is not listed as one of the Orioles top 30 prospects.

With the money the Braves gave to their top three picks, they had to go with cheaper options moving forward. This hurt in the third round, as they took Louisville left-hander Drew Harrington. He had a 5.10 ERA in 120 innings before being released by the Braves in the middle of the 2018 season.

Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May and Zac Gallen were all drafted after Harrington in the third round.

The Braves got Bryse Wilson in the fourth round. He’s still a young prospect in Atlanta’s system. Wilson has gotten a couple of chances, but he needs to pitch well in his next audition.

Cleveland got All-Star pitcher Shane Bieber later in the fourth round.

Jeremy Walker was Atlanta’s fifth round pick. He made the big leagues last season and pitched well in six games out of the bullpen.

The Braves made a great selection in the 19 round, when they drafted left-hander Tucker Davidson from Midland College in Texas. Davidson had a 2.15 ERA last season between Mississippi and Gwinnett and could pitch in Atlanta this season.

This was an outstanding draft by the Braves. Sure, there were some other players, particularly position players, they could have drafted. But the purpose of this draft was to build up the farm system.

And there are two functions of a farm system. First, to provide players directly to the big-league team. Wilson and Walker have made it to Atlanta. The other function is to use prospects from a farm system to help the big-league team with trades. Wentz and Cumberland have done that.

Plus, Anderson, Muller and Davidson are three of Atlanta’s top 10 prospects and three of the top five pitching prospects. This draft grade cannot be completed yet until those three show what they can do to help the Braves win, either by pitching in Atlanta or by going in a trade.

But so far, so good as far as what the 2016 amateur draft has produced for the Braves.

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