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If there is no baseball, what about 2021 for the Braves?

Bill Shanks wonders what might happen to the Braves if there is no baseball in 2020
If there is no baseball, what about 2021 for the Braves?
If there is no baseball, what about 2021 for the Braves?

Let's just assume for a minute that there is no baseball in 2020. I hope that won't happen, but with the COVID-19 cases increasing, there are concerns a return could be in jeopardy.

So, what if it happens? What then?

If we assume that somehow, someway the 2021 year and season will be normal, then we can predict a plan for this offseason. Of course, we don't know what these organizations will do after losing money in 2020. Will they just pick up with what their payrolls were going to be in 2020 and have the same level at 2021?

The Braves payroll was going to be around $150 million. We can only wonder if their revenue from the battery, and their extraordinary revenues from previous seasons, will allow them to remain at that level moving forward. Not all teams have real estate properties to at least have some revenue like the Braves.

Let's look at how the Braves payroll would look for 2021.

First, there are eight players who would be eligible for free agency this winter, which would total $66,250,000 coming off the books. 

Marcell Ozuna - $18,000,000
Cole Hamels - $18,000,000
Mark Melancon - $14,000,000
Shane Greene - $6,250,000
Tyler Flowers - $4,000,000
Nick Markakis - $4,000,000
Adeiny Hechavarria - $1,000,000
Felix Hernandez - $1,000,000

Here are the guaranteed contracts for 2021. This total is $66,700,00.

Freddie Freeman - $22,000,000
Will Smith - $13,000,000
Ender Inciarte - $8,700,000
Travis d’Arnaud - $8,000,000
Chris Martin - $7,000,000
Ronald Acuna - $5,000,000
Ozzie Albies - $3,000,000

One player has an option for next year - Darren O'Day, who would make $3.5 million in 2021 if that option is picked up.

What about arbitration-eligible players? Lord only knows how that would be handled if there was no season this year. What would they get, a cost-of-living increase? How could their salaries go up or down? Perhaps any player tendered a contract who would be headed to arbitration would simply have the 2020 contract renewed at the same amount. 

Here are the arbitration-eligible players for this winter, along with their 2020 salaries:

Mike Foltynewicz - $6,425,000
Adam Duvall - $3,250,000
Dansby Swanson - $3,150,000
Luke Jackson - $1,825,000
Johan Camargo - $1,700,000
Charlie Culberson - $1,000,000
Grant Dayton - $655,000
Sean Newcomb - $593,500

Would all of these players be offered arbitration? Well, Dayton had a poor spring training, so he'd probably be let go. And while everyone loves Charlie Culberson, he'd likely be brought back into camp as a non-roster player after being non-tendered again.

And then there are three main pre-arbitration players. Here are what they were going to be paid in 2020.

Mike Soroka - $583,500
Max Fried - $583,500
Austin Riley - $568,500

Any other young player, like Kyle Wright or Touki Toussaint or Drew Waters or Cristian Pache would be making near MLB minimum, as well, since they are pre-arbitration players.

Let's tackle a few questions. First, would the Braves want to bring Marcell Ozuna back to be the designated hitter, which we all know will be in place for 2021? He seems to be the perfect candidate. But he seemed disappointed he didn't get more offers. Other teams, even his former team in St. Louis, may believe he would be worth getting that $18 million as a DH.

The Braves would have to decide the readiness of Pache and Waters,  which will be tough considering they've lost a lot of development time. If one could be ready in 2021, then Inciarte and/or Duvall could be the other outfielder. But they'd still need to invest in a designated hitter, and Ozuna might be as good a candidate as any since he's no longer a great defensive player.

That's probably one of the biggest questions they'd have to deal with - the DH. They'll have to spend some money on that this winter, whether it's Ozuna or someone else.

The Braves would probably love Mark Melancon to come back, but not for $14 million. Shane Greene would likely be allowed to leave, and you'd have to hope the Braves would continue to put money into the bullpen. It looked like a great strength for the team for 2020.

The Braves should have a lot of money to form their roster for 2021. Almost half of what their projected 2020 payroll could be available to spend. 

Of course, one thing to watch and wonder about is the contract status of Freddie Freeman, who will be going into the last year of his long-term contract next season. How will teams treat those type players? After a year of no revenue, would teams want to invest in a player now in his 30s?

There are so many questions that we will not know how they'll be answered considering we've never had this sort of situation before. The best news is that the Braves will at least have the financial flexibility to make some moves and even perhaps bring in some more players with one-year contracts, and Alex Anthopoulous' priority for those type contracts might even be the norm this offseason.

Let's hope there is some type of 2020 season. Even a truncated campaign could complicate matters looking ahead, but if there is no season this summer, this offseason will likely be a freak show as teams try to figure out what the heck to do for next season.

Listen to The Bill Shanks Show weekdays at 3:00 p.m. ET on Middle Georgia’s ESPN. You can listen online at TheSuperStations.com. Follow Bill on Twitter at @billshanks and you can email him at thebillshanksshow@yahoo.com.

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