Bumgarner the perfect fit for Braves

So, Madison Bumgarner has lost it, huh? He’s not worth a big contract just because he’s not what he once was?

Come on.

The Braves need Bumgarner. They need a veteran at the top of the rotation. He’s a 30-year-old North Carolina guy who grew up a Braves fan. He went to Turner Field as a kid rooting for the Braves.

They need a veteran to help the young members of the rotation – Mike Soroka, Max Fried and especially Mike Foltynewicz. They need someone even better than Dallas Keuchel, who was there last year.

They need someone who has been in the playoffs, who has succeeded in the postseason, someone they can turn to when they need a big victory in September or October. They need someone who can be their Justin Verlander, their Jon Lester, their next John Smoltz.

Sure, it would be nice if the Braves could afford Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, but we know that’s not going to happen. We need to look at tier two, if you will, of the free agent starting pitchers to know who a legit candidate is to be signed by the Braves.

There are plenty of others in this second tier, pitchers like Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Homer Bailey, Brett Anderson, Kyle Gibson, Gio Gonzalez, Rich Hill, Wade Miley, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Michael Wacha and even former Braves lefty Alex Wood.

Hamels wouldn’t be bad for a short-term deal, but he’s 36, almost six years older than Bumgarner. None of those pitchers have the track record Bumgarner has. None fit better than him in an Atlanta uniform.

For a seven-year stretch, from 2010 through 2016, Bumgarner went 100-67 with an earned run average of 3.00. He averaged 30 games started and 198 innings pitched, which includes his first season when he made just 18 starts and had 111 innings pitched in his rookie season.

Narrow it to 2011 through 2016 and he still had an ERA of 3.00. Bumgarner averaged 16 wins, 32 starts per season, 213 innings pitched, 49 walks and 214 strikeouts.

When Bumgarner came up in 2010, he was 20 years old. So that solid work in his first seven seasons happened between the ages of 20 and 26.

So, what happened this past season? Well, Bumgarner answered many of his critics with a solid season. He started 34 games, posted a 3.90 ERA, allowed only 191 hits in 207.2 innings pitched and struck out 203 batters with just 43 walks.

You don’t think the Braves can use a pitcher who just made 34 starts and posted over 200 innings with over 200 strikeouts? Well, how many times has that happened this decade for an Atlanta starting pitcher?

Here’s the list. The Braves have had eight pitchers go over 200 innings since 2010, while only one starting pitcher topped 200 strikeouts in a single season.

Number of Braves pitchers with 200 or more innings in the 2010s: (8)
2015 – Shelby Miller – 205.1
2015 – Julio Teheran – 200.2
2014 – Julio Teheran – 221.0
2014 – Aaron Harang – 204.1
2013 – Mike Minor – 204.2
2011 – Tim Hudson – 215.0
2010 – Tim Hudson – 228.2
2010 – Tommy Hanson – 202.2

Number of Braves pitchers with 200 or more strikeouts in the 2010s: (1)
2018 – Mike Foltynewicz - 202

A good comparison to Bumgarner is Jon Lester, who turned 31 right before his first season with the Chicago Cubs.

In his five seasons since he signed in Chicago, Lester has averaged 15 wins and 9 losses, with a 3.54 ERA. He’s averaged 188 innings pitched, 32 starts, with 180 strikeouts per season. His strikeout ratio per nine innings is 8.6.

In his previous seven seasons, from when he was 24 until he was 30 years old, Lester averaged 207 innings pitched, 32 starts, with 192 strikeouts per season. His strikeout ratio per nine innings was 8.4. He averaged 15 wins and 9 losses, with a 3.47 ERA.

So, Lester’s numbers have been very similar since he got to Chicago. He’s still a workhorse, still giving the Cubs a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, even with two years left on his huge contract. Sure, Lester showed some signs of age last season, giving up 33 more hits than innings pitched, but he’s still going to the post every five days giving the Cubs a respected veteran starter.

Could Bumgarner do the same thing as he gets into his 30s? There’s no reason to believe Bumgarner cannot be durable into his 30s. He’s had two fluke injuries in the last few years. He injured his shoulder in 2017 due to a dirt bike injury, and then the next spring Bumgarner was hit with a line drive in his last spring training appearance and had a broken hand.

Have those two injuries caused Bumgarner to go backwards? Well, his stuff still seems strong. His highest fastball average in 2019 was 92.69, his highest average since August 2015. He also throws a cutter, curveball and occasionally a sinker. For a bad team in San Francisco, his numbers were very good last season.

Is he what he was in his early-mid 20s, well, maybe not, but this is still a very good starting pitcher who has many more positives than negatives on his resume.

And here’s the tipping point. Bumgarner has excelled in October, something the Braves desperately need from anyone they bring in to join the rotation. Bumgarner has a 2.11 ERA in 102.1 postseason innings. Right now, he is right there with Smoltz as the best postseason pitcher in this generation.

Zack Wheeler is the other pitcher who should be near the top of Atlanta’s wish list, and there are plenty of reasons he should be a priority that can be addressed in another article. Remember, the Braves really need two starters. Wheeler has many of the same qualifications as Bumgarner, but no one has MadBum’s postseason resume.

Sure, bring both Wheeler and Bumgarner to Atlanta for 2020. The Braves have the finances, the revenue to make it happen. But the first choice must be Bumgarner. He could be a huge piece if the Braves are to take that next step.

Listen to The Bill Shanks Show weekdays at 3:00 p.m. ET on Middle Georgia’s ESPN. You can listen online at TheSuperStations.com. Follow Bill on Twitter at @billshanks and you can email him at thebillshanksshow@yahoo.com.