The Best and Worst-Case Scenarios Facing the 2026 Cardinals

The 2026 season could go a number of ways for the Cardinals.

Feb 26, 2021; Jupiter, Florida, USA; A general view of the St. Louis Cardinals logo on the stadium at Roger Dean Stadium during spring training workouts. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images | Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals have been in transition this offseason. All four of their major trade chips, Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras are gone. If it wasn't already clear that the Cardinals are rebuilding, it is by now.

There may be some short-term pain, but fans have mostly embraced this rebuild, as the Cardinals have finally picked a lane, and the hope is that they can get back to where they once were after a just a few short years.

2026 may be a rough year for St. Louis. Below are two possible outcomes for this year's team, outlining the best and worst-case scenarios for 2026.

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Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for 2026 Cardinals

Mar 5, 2025; West Palm Beach, Florida, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left feilder JJ Wetherholt (87) runs to second base against the Houston Astros during the second inning at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-Imagn Images | Rich Storry-Imagn Images

Worst-Case

Let's get the bad part out of the way early here. Obviously, the departures are going to hurt. They'll miss Gray's veteran presence and ability to eat innings and strike hitters out. They'll also miss the passion that Arenado, Contreras and Donovan all brought and the leadership each of the departed players displayed in the clubhouse.

It's a young team, and there isn't really a true veteran presence to guide the younger players through what could be some tough times. Without a veteran leader and a superstar, the Cardinals could struggle in 2026 and potentially lose up to 90 games or more, similar to 2023.

Even the Pittsburgh Pirates have had a productive offseason, and a case could be made that they can overtake the Cardinals and send them to last place in the National League Central. So, at worst, this team could lose a lot of games and be well out of the postseason picture by the trade deadline, leading to another possible sell-off.

Best-Case

Let's end things on a good note here. Having a young team isn't necessarily a bad thing, and while the Cardinals likely won't make the playoffs, their young core could take steps forward. Top prospect JJ Wetherholt is ready, and he could end up being the next superstar the Cardinals have drafted and developed. At some point, even Liam Doyle could make it to the big leagues.

In addition, they still have some very good young players in Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson, and players like Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker have a lot of potential.

If all goes according to plan, St. Louis fans will be looking at the team's future core, and if most of them can perform up to par, hope will be ignited for 2027 and beyond, and the Cardinals could potentially at least hang around .500.

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