Cubs Linked to Veteran Padres Starter in Free Agency

It took one year for Seth Lugo to prove he could be a full-time starter and now he's a free-agent option for teams like the Chicago Cubs.

The Chicago Cubs don’t have a bare pantry when it comes to starting pitching going into 2024.

With Drew Smyly picking up his contract option earlier this week, he joins a group that includes long-time Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, along with Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski.

But the loss of Marcus Stroman to free agency does leave a hole. It seems unlikely the Cubs will be able to lure him back. Aaron Nola of the Phillies has been a reported option, and that could be Plan A for the Cubs, as he’s a durable starter and it would steal from National League competition.

But, it’s always good to have a Plan B, right?

Recently, Sports Illustrated ranked the Top 50 free agents on the market and predicted where each would land.

The publication connected the Cubs to a starting pitcher — just not Nola. No, it turned out to be former San Diego Padres starter Seth Lugo.

In Lugo, the Cubs could be catching a starter that, despite being 34 years old, still has tread on the tires, as SI explains:

A year ago, Lugo signed with the Padres for the opportunity to be a full-time starter. He made the most of it, posting a 3.57 ERA over 146⅓ innings and setting himself up for a lucrative contract this winter. Entering his age-34 season, Lugo’s on the older side but has less mileage on his arm than most other available starters.

Lugo is an interesting case. He began his career with the New York Mets in 2016 as a part-time starter in 2016. In 2017, he started 18 of 19 games and went 7-5 with a 4.71 ERA.

But, from there, he was primarily a reliever and spot starter. For his seven seasons in New York, he made 275 appearances, but only 38 were starts. Break it down by appearances and Lugo threw barely two innings per appearance with the Mets.

So, as SI pointed out, Lugo’s move to being a starter with San Diego went well. He went 8-7 in 26 starts, striking out 140 and walking 36. His strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings was close to his career mark of 9.1 per nine innings. His walk rate of 2.2 per nine innings was just below his career mark of 2.4.

Lugo made just $7.5 million and opted out of a deal that would have paid him the same in 2024. He could get another multi-year deal for more money in a market that doesn’t have a lot of inning-eaters that can produce quality outings like Lugo.