FanGraphs Projects Chicago Cubs Will Miss MLB Postseason

The Chicago Cubs were dealt a big blow on Wednesday when they lost 13-7 against the Pittsburgh Pirates with their ace Justin Steele on the mound.

It's the second time in as many starts that Steele has gotten lit up for six earned runs.

The only saving grace that came out of Wednesday for the Cubs was their two main competitors for the final National League Wild Card spot, the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, also lost.

This allowed Chicago to maintain their spot in the playoff picture, sitting a half game up on the Marlins and one game up on the Reds.

Despite that, FanGraphs' projections have the Cubs missing the playoffs when the regular season is finished.

They give Chicago a 44.6% chance to make the postseason, trailing Miami who has a 47.6% chance. Cincinnati is a distant third with a 21.1% chance to make the playoffs.

Much of that has to do with the schedules remaining for these clubs.

The Marlins host the Milwaukee Brewers before finishing their year on the road against the sub-.500 New York Mets and Pirates.

The Cubs finish their series against Pittsburgh on Thursday before ending their home slate against the Colorado Rockies. They then travel to face the NL best Atlanta Braves and division leading Brewers.

It's a tough finish for Chicago who has started playing their worst baseball at the most important time of the year.

They're 3-7 over their last 10 games and have lost three series in a row.

It goes without saying that the next four home games is the most important stretch of the season if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.