Chicago Cubs Should Sell at the Trade Deadline, But Probably Won't
With the MLB trade deadline quickly approaching, the Chicago Cubs find themselves in the middle of the National League, with very important decisions to make.
The club has a handful of attractive trade chips, most notably All-Star starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger, World Series champion Kyle Hendricks and proven veteran catcher Yan Gomes. The question is, will the Cubs move any of them?
Bellinger signed a one-year, $17.5 million contract with the Cubs last December, which included a mutual option for 2024. A resurgent 2023 season from Bellinger has significantly upped his value. After slashing just .195/.278/.642 over his final three seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bellinger has returned to playing at an All-Star level. Through 71 games as a Cub, Bellinger is slashing .317/.364/.910, all while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense both in center field and at first base. Just 28, Bellinger appears to be in line for a handsome payday this winter.
Top news breaker and longtime USA Today national baseball writer Bob Nightengale believes there is "zero chance" that the Cubs re-sign Bellinger this winter.
"I think there's zero chance that they would re-sign him in the offseason," Nightengale told the Jack Vita Show Thursday. "His agent is Scott Boras... I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for $150 million (this winter)."
Nightengale also estimates that if Bellinger stays healthy and his production doesn't drop off in the season's final months, the 2020 World Series champion will command a minimum of $100 million in his next deal.
The Cubs have already committed two of their three outfield spots to Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, through 2026. Suzuki signed a five-year, $85 million deal prior to the start of the 2022 season. The Cubs agreed to a three-year, $61 million extension with Happ earlier this spring, which will kick in in 2024.
Happ has been unimpressive in the follow-up to his breakout 2022 season, batting .246 with a .761 OPS and nine home runs through 100 games this season. He has posted an impressive .372 OBP, but has hit for little power and isn't hitting for contact at a very high rate. Generally, clubs want more out of their corner outfield positions and number three hitter, which are spots typically reserved for bigger bats.
After a promising rookie campaign, Suzuki hasn't shown much progress in 2023. His Batting Average (.256), OPS (.730) and OPS+ (98) are all down from a year ago.
The Cubs are married to both Suzuki and Happ through 2026, leaving just one open outfield position for the next three seasons. The Cubs could take another swing at a pricy outfield contract and re-sign Bellinger, or leave space for the club to develop a starting outfielder from their pipeline. Five of the Cubs' top-12 prospects (per MLB.com) are outfielders, including their best prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong. In order for the Cubs to return to the top of the National League Central, they will likely need to build through their farm system, just as they did a decade ago, which led to them winning their first World Series in 108 years.
Had the Cubs not extended Happ, a Bellinger extension may have been more likely. Locking up Bellinger, Happ and Suzuki would limit the development of outfield prospects, upon reaching the Major League level. Bellinger could play first base, which would then block first base prospect Matt Mervis. The Cubs could retain Bellinger, but for what purpose? The club is a mediocre 51-51 through four months of the season... and that is the Cubs' greatest problem.
At the All-Star break, the Cubs were in a comfortable position to sell, cash in on Bellinger and Stroman, and build towards the future. Since the break, David Ross' club has feasted on a weak schedule, racking up wins in eight of their last nine games, all while playing the Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox. Their recent hot stretch has inspired hope to a fan base that is growing impatient, and launched the club back into playoff contention. The Cubs are just 5.5 games back of first place in the NL Central, and four games back of the third NL Wild Card spot, with the Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds all in front of them.
The Cubs have not had much of a problem piling up wins and inflating their run-differential (+55) when playing inferior teams, but in games against clubs with winning records, the North Siders are 14 games below .500, a dismal 25-39. A playoff run still seems quite unlikely this season.
The Cubs play three more games against the Cardinals this weekend, and if they take two of three, they'll be sitting pretty at 53-52, heading into the final day before the deadline.
Swapping Bellinger and others for prospects, with the Cubs very much alive in the playoff race, would be a difficult sell to their fan base. After receiving much pushback for not retaining Kris Bryant, Javier Baez or Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs reacted last winter by ponying up a combined $295.5 million to five players: Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Trey Mancini and Bellinger. The Cubs showed they were willing to spend, and as a result, the club generated buzz at spring training with its roster full of fresh faces, resembling a college basketball team that had assembled its roster almost entirely through the transfer portal. Attendance is up at Wrigley Field from a year ago. The Cubs have elevated from subpar National League team (74-88 in 2022) to mediocre National League team (51-51 entering Friday). It would be a difficult business move to sell off parts at this time, even though it would likely be the correct baseball move.
As currently constructed, the Cubs appear to be stuck in the last place that a baseball club wants to be: the middle. They're not good enough to win a World Series, but they're not bad enough to entirely punt on the second half of the season, sell off parts and stockpile prospect capital.
After failing to reach the playoffs and posting the sixth-best record in the National League in 2021, the Reds found themselves in this same dangerous middle-ground not long ago. Rather than hanging around in the middle of the league and hoping to steal a playoff spot with a win total in the low-80s, the Reds kickstarted their rebuild, shipping out Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker, in exchange for a nice package of young players. The decision to punt on 2022 accelerated the Reds' rebuild process. Three of their top contributing position players this season were players that the club acquired via trade, during their overhaul: Jake Fraley, Will Benson and Spencer Steer.
The Reds tied for the second-worst record in the National League in 2022, losing 100 games. A year later, however, they are 56-48 and looking like they may be the team to beat in the NL Central for the foreseeable future, with many more promising young players expected to come up through their pipeline soon, including baseball's no. 16 overall prospect Noelvi Marte, who the club acquired for Castillo at least year's trade deadline.
Instead of going into a total rebuild and overhauling their farm system, the Cubs have put together a strange, half-rebuild. They're trying to be competitive, while waiting for their prospects to arrive at the Major League level. Though top-100 prospects Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Kevin Alcantara and Crow-Armstrong have all shown great promise, they're still just prospects. Brown has a 5.10 ERA in 14 starts at Triple-A Iowa this season. Alcantara and Horton are still in A-Ball. There are no certainties that said prospects will arrive and change the trajectory of the franchise. Yet, the Cubs appear to be buying time.
The Cubs might be able to accelerate their rebuild process if they took a page from the Reds' playbook, and dealt all of Bellinger, Stroman, Hendricks and Gomes. There are no guarantees with prospects, but the more high-upside prospects an organization has, the better. Not all prospects will pan out, which is why it can be wise for a team to effectively stack the deck with promising young talent.
In what appears to be a heavy seller's market, Bellinger could be the best outfield option available at the deadline. Gomes would be a valuable add to any team looking for a savvy defensive catcher. Stroman and Hendricks would similarly be two of the best pitching options for contending teams looking to lengthen their rotation.
Entering play June 25, Stroman's 2.28 ERA was among the lowest in all of baseball. In the time since, the 32 year-old veteran has struggled mightily, posting an 8.00 ERA and 1.852 WHIP over 27.0 innings pitched and six starts. Stroman's trade value has certainly taken a hit. The former Duke Blue Devil signed a two-year, $50 million contract with a third-year player option, back in December 2021. Given how well he was pitching, it seemed that Stroman would certainly opt out and test the waters of free agency this winter. If Stroman continues to slide, perhaps he will re-up on his deal for 2024, but if the veteran right-hander opts out and is unable to reach an agreement to remain with the Cubs, Chicago will lose their 2023 Opening Day starting pitcher for nothing.
Hendricks and Gomes are each under contract through 2024, so neither would be a rental. The extra year of control adds to the value they would each bring to a contending club.
After a pair of underwhelming seasons, Hendricks has returned to form in 2023. Now 33, the 2016 NL Cy Young third place finisher has a 3.45 ERA and 1.038 WHIP over 12 starts and 70.1 innings pitched this year.
Many expected the Cubs to sell All-Stars Willson Contreras and Ian Happ at least year's deadline. In late July, Happ and Contreras embraced each other in an emotional hug in what each player appeared to believe was their final game at Wrigley as a Cub, only to return to the Friendly Confines a week later, as the Cubs held onto both players. Contreras would walk as a free agent upon the conclusion of the season, signing a five-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. Happ would receive an extension less than a year later.
Given how things have shaken out and how the Cubs handled the deadline last summer, I am expecting the Cubs to hang onto both Stroman and Bellinger. Like Contreras, the Cubs can give Bellinger a qualifying offer this winter. If Bellinger were to decline the qualifying offer, the Cubs would receive draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. Even if they are unable to re-sign him, the Cubs won't be losing Bellinger for nothing.
Though I am not a front office executive, I imagine Stroman's trade value has gone down in recent weeks. If he continues on this current trend, he could choose to opt in to his player option for 2024, which would guarantee him $25 million.
If the Cubs weren't willing to part ways with their two best trade chips a season ago, when they were 19 games below .500, I wouldn't expect them to move their best trade chips when they're 51-51 and only four games out of the playoffs — even if it's probably what they should do.
For more from Jack Vita, follow him on Twitter @JackVitaShow, and subscribe to his podcast, the Jack Vita Show, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Facebook, Amazon, iHeartRadio, and wherever podcasts are found.
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