Hoyer Deserves More Credit for Not Overpaying Chicago Cubs World Series "Core"
Just under three years ago, the Chicago Cubs announced that Theo Epstein would be stepping down from his position as president of baseball operations.
The Cubs promoted general manager Jed Hoyer to fill the vacancy that Epstein's departure created.
Immediately, Hoyer was faced with a handful of critical decisions that would heavily impact the club's future. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez each were entering the final year of their respective contracts.
The Cubs did not tender Schwarber a contract for 2021, making him a free agent. The front office engaged in extension talks with Bryant, Baez and Rizzo, but were unable to reach an agreement with any of them.
Five games under .500 at the trade deadline, Hoyer made the bold decision to trade Bryant, Baez and Rizzo in exchange for a bundle of promising young prospects.
Hoyer's decision to let go of the trio of fan favorites was met with much criticism and scrutiny from the Wrigley faithful. In the immediate aftermath of the midseason sell-off, resale ticket prices dropped immensely. Fan attendance decreased, too. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts was lambasted on social media, with fans calling him cheap.
Days after the flurry of deadline deals occurred, Hoyer defended the moves his front office made, explaining that the front office tried to extend Rizzo, Baez and Bryant, but the two sides were unable to see eye-to-eye.
"The extensions we offered these guys will hold up exceptionally well...against the open market," Hoyer said.
Hoyer wasn't wrong. Each player signed for less money than the Cubs reportedly offered them in extension negotiations. Back in 2018, the Cubs reportedly offered Bryant a $200 million extension. Bryant would later sign a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. Prior to the start of the 2020 season, the Cubs reportedly offered Baez a $180 million extension, which he declined. He would later agree to a six-year, $140 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. In spring of 2021, the Cubs offered Anthony Rizzo a five-year, $70 million extension. Rizzo signed a two-year, $32 million contract with the New York Yankees a year later.
The Cubs offered each player more than what the market ended up dictating. Still, the club was heavily scrutinized for letting go of its 'core.' The Cubs were called "cheap", despite having one of the National League's three highest payrolls from 2018 through 2020. During that time, the 'core' showed signs of active regression, and didn't win a single postseason game.
Fast-forward to 2023, and the Cubs decision to sell Baez, Bryant and Rizzo is looking brilliant. Yet, Hoyer has received little to no credit for the savvy baseball moves that were heavily scrutinized by the fan base and positioned the Cubs better for the future.
In 2023, Rizzo, Bryant and Baez all had OPS+ totals under league average (100). Bryant and Rizzo's seasons were cut short due to injuries, with Rizzo, age-34, playing a total of 99 games and Bryant, 31, playing just 80 games. In the first two seasons of his seven-year, $182 million deal with the Rockies, Bryant has registered just 112 games.
Baez's 62 OPS+ was near the bottom of the league among qualified players. Last season, the New York Post's Jon Heyman named Baez the "Least Valuable Player" in Major League Baseball. In 2023, The Athletic's Jason Stark made Bryant his "Least Valuable Player" selection. Hopefully for Rizzo's sake, it won't be his turn to receive LVP honors from a national writer next year.
Here's a look at the stat lines from the three former members of the Cubs' 'core', in 2023:
Baez: 136 G, .222/.267/.593, 62 OPS+, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 12 SB, 0.7 WAR
Bryant: 80 G, .233/.313/.680, 76 OPS+, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 0 SB, -1.0 WAR
Rizzo: 99 G, .244/.328/.706, 94 OPS+, 12 HR, 41 RBI, 3 SB, 0.5 WAR
By no metrics were any of these players highly productive in 2023. They all were below-average in OPS+, OPS and Batting Average. Bryant and Baez were below-average in OBP, while Rizzo was just barely above-average.
Through the club's trades of Baez, Rizzo and Bryant, the Cubs collected a handful of promising young prospects, kicking off the overhaul of their farm system.
In exchange for Bryant, the Cubs received outfield prospect Alexander Canario and pitching prospect Caleb Kilian. Canario made his big league debut towards the end of the 2023 season, batting .294 with a .941 OPS.
Chicago swapped Rizzo for right-handed pitcher Alexander Vizcaino and outfielder Kevin Alcantara. Alcantara, who is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League, ranks as the no. 71 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. The Cubs also snagged Pete Crow-Armstrong from the Mets for Baez. Crow-Armstrong is now the Cubs' best prospect and baseball's 12th-best prospect, per MLB Pipeline.
Entering 2021, MLB Pipeline ranked the Cubs' farm system as the 22nd-best in the sport. They currently sit at no. 4 in the site's farm system rankings. The Cubs have also drafted well over the past two years.
In short work, Hoyer has entirely remade the Cubs' farm system. And while many believed that it would take longer for the Cubs to return to contention, the club exceeded expectations in 2023 and was vying for a postseason berth in the final days of the regular season, just barely coming up short.
So can fans admit they were wrong and give credit to Hoyer for making a bold, unpopular decision that positioned the Cubs better for the future? Most won't, but I'm sure they enjoyed the ride that they embarked on in 2023. And I don't doubt that within the next few years, the same fans that were outraged by the Javy Baez and Anthony Rizzo trades will be buying Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kevin Alcantara jerseys.
