Re-Signing Cody Bellinger Should Be Cubs' Top Priority This Offseason
For the first six weeks of the Major League Baseball offseason, all eyes were focused on Shohei Ohtani.
After being courted by a handful of teams, Ohtani announced Saturday afternoon that he would be joining the Los Angeles Dodgers, agreeing to terms on a 10-year, $700 million contract.
The Chicago Cubs were among the teams vying for the services of the two-time American League MVP, but ultimately lost out. It had appeared to be a bit of a long shot that Ohtani would abandon the sunny West Coast for the chilly Midwest.
Realistically, the thought of Ohtani donning pinstripes and calling Wrigley Field his home was a pipe dream for Cubs fans. While the club will not be adding the three-time All-Star to their roster, it is expected to be quite active this offseason.
As the New York Post's Jon Heyman reported last week on Twitter, the Cubs will continue to "look closely" at free agent position players Matt Chapman, Rhys Hoskins and their own Cody Bellinger.
Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season after sustaining a torn ACL in a March 23 spring training game. The former top Philadelphia Phillies prospect and 2018 National League Rookie of the Year finalist could be in the market for a contract similar to the one Bellinger signed last season (one year, $17.5 million with a mutual option for a second year).
Hoskins will be returning from injury and looking to bounce back in 2024. A strong 2024 season could make way for a handsome payday, if he were to test the waters of free agency a year from now.
The Cubs currently have questions surrounding both corner infield positions. Infield prospect Matt Mervis received an opportunity to play first base early in the season, but struggled to find his footing at the Major League level. Over 27 games, the 25 year-old slashed .167/.242/.531 with three home runs and 11 RBI, before he was sent back down to Triple-A Iowa.
Mervis' struggles spelled more playing time for Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom, and ultimately led to the club's midseason trade for Jeimer Candelario. Canedlario also manned the hot corner for the club, but was sidelined for a chunk of September with a lower-back strain.
Candelario signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds last week.
Chapman and Bellinger are expected to be this winter's highest-priced free agent hitters behind Ohtani. Adding Hoskins would not take the Cubs out of the bidding for either Chapman or Bellinger. Hoskins could play first base and occupy the club's designated hitter spot, with Chapman at third base, or Bellinger patrolling center field.
The Cubs have also been rumored to pursue starting pitching through either trade or free agency, but make no mistake about it: if the Cubs want to be competitive in 2024, they must re-sign Bellinger.
After a lackluster previous three seasons (2020-22), Bellinger returned to MVP-form in 2023, slashing .307/.356/.881 with 26 home runs, 97 RBI and a 133 OPS+, placing him 10th in the voting for the award in the National League and earning his first Silver Slugger since 2019.
Bellinger proved to be a one-man wrecking crew in Chicago. In 2023, the Cubs were eight games over .500 (68-60) when he played, and four games under .500 (15-19) when he sat. In turn, the Cubs were 12 games better with Bellinger in the lineup than they were without him.
Is Bellinger actually worth 12 wins? Not by the measuring stick of Fangraphs' WAR. Bellinger was the fourth-most valuable player to the Cubs, according to Fangraphs WAR, placing behind Dansby Swanson (4.9), Justin Steele (4.9) and Nico Hoerner (4.7). Bellinger himself totaled 4.1. But WAR is far from the end-all, be-all statistic that defines the value of players.
Swanson, who tied for the club's lead in WAR, posted a rather poor .306 on-base percentage over the season's final four months, batting .232 and logging a .724 OPS during that stretch. Was Swanson the Cubs' best player in 2023? WAR says so, but he wasn't.
Similar to Bellinger, one could argue that Steele was more valuable than 4.9 wins. The Cubs won 19 of the first 26 games that Steele pitched in 2023. So why is Steele not even worth five wins?
Bellinger led the Cubs in home runs (26), batting average (.307), RBI (97), OPS (.881) and OPS+ (133). He had the club's second-highest hit (153) and stolen base (20) totals, and placed third in on-base percentage (.356), while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at two different positions.
Though they missed the playoffs, the Cubs greatly exceeded expectations in 2023. Bellinger was a huge reason why. There were a number of games where a Bellinger home run, base knock or sliding catch proved to be the difference in a Cubs win.
Allowing Bellinger to sign with another club would be a huge loss for Chicago. Where else are the Cubs going to find that type of production?
One concern some clubs may have as it relates to Bellinger is his hard-hit rate, as the Post's Jon Heyman reported last month. Bellinger's average exit velocity in 2023 was 87.9 mph, down from the 89.3, 89.3 and 89.4 that he posted from 2020 through 2022. Bellinger may not have been hitting balls as hard as he did in years past, but he was hitting the ball far more often.
Hard-hit rate is an interesting metric. In theory, a player could collect just 10 hits in 100 at bats, and have an exit velocity of 97.9 mph. He would also have a batting average of .100.
Hard-hit rate doesn't account for swing and miss. A player shouldn't be penalized for cutting down on strikeouts, as Bellinger did from 2022 to 2023. Bellinger transformed his approach at the plate, commanding the strike zone and shortening his swing.
With two strikes, he batted .279, choking up on the bat and simply punching the ball in-play. In doing so, he nearly cut his strikeouts in half from 2022 to 2023. Bellinger struck out 150 times in 2022. In 2023, he punched out 87 times.
Bellinger saw a dramatic improvement from 2020-22 to 2023. He slashed just .203/.272/.648 in his final three seasons with the Dodgers. On the North Side, he upped his slash line to .307/.356/.881.
Given the downward spiral Bellinger experienced in his final years in Los Angeles, some executives may be hesitant to give Bellinger the type of deal that he and agent Scott Boras are looking for, thinking that 2023 was nothing more than a flash in the pan.
In September, USA Today national baseball writer Bob Nightengale told the Jack Vita Show that Bellinger would ask for over $200 million in free agency, if not $300 million. In that same episode, Nightengale also speculated that Bellinger could hold out until January or February, and "wait for someone to meet that price tag."
There has been little news pertaining to Bellinger since the start of the offseason, but with Ohtani off the market, the hot stove will certainly be heating up soon. The price value and length on the framework of a potential Bellinger deal seems to vary, depending on to whom you are speaking.
Perhaps Bellinger, 28, will sign a deal similar to the seven years, $177 million contract Dansby Swanson inked last winter. Perhaps Bellinger will eclipse $200 million. Or perhaps he lands somewhere closer to $150 million.
In any case, the Cubs will be a worse team in 2024, if Bellinger isn't on their roster. If the Cubs want to return to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018, re-signing Cody Bellinger should be their top priority this winter.
