Why Craig Counsell is a Major Upgrade Over David Ross as Chicago Cubs Manager
For the past month, it has appeared to be clear as day that David Ross would be returning to manage the Chicago Cubs in 2024, in the final guaranteed year of his contract. 2024 appeared to be a make-or-break season for the former World Series hero.
In a shocking turn of events, Ross was fired by the Cubs Monday, after four years as the club's skipper. He has been replaced by former Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who signed a five-year, $40 million contract with the Cubs. It is the richest contract for a manager in baseball history.
“Today we made the difficult decision to dismiss David Ross,” Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer said in a statement. “On behalf of the Cubs organization, we express our deep gratitude for David’s contributions to our club, both on and off the field. First as a player and then as a manager, David continually showcased his ability to lead. David’s legacy will be felt in Chicago for generations and his impact to our organization will stack up with the legends that came before him.”
The decision made by Hoyer mirrors that of a move the organization made nearly a decade ago. Upon the conclusion of the 2014 season, the Cubs abruptly dismissed rookie manager Rick Renteria, when a more-accomplished manager became available on the open market.
Then-Tampa Bay Rays general manager Andrew Friedman's decision to leave St. Petersburg to become the president of baseball operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers triggered an opt-out clause for longtime manager Joe Maddon. Maddon opted out of his contract, and the Cubs pounced. Maddon was hired, and Renteria was offered up as a sacrificial lamb, having only served one year on the job.
All indications pointed in the direction of Ross' return for the final year of his contract, with a club option remaining for 2025. Owner Tom Ricketts offered up a vote of confidence in the immediate aftermath of the Cubs losing their grip of a postseason spot in the final weeks of the regular season.
"I think Ross had a great season, and the players played hard for him," Ricketts told Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic in early October. "He’s our guy. I like him a lot, and I think he had a good year. When the team got down, way below .500 and it looked like the season was over, he didn’t let it go. He got the guys back and playing hard. We got to here. He was a big part of that. I think he’s a great manager."
On June 8, the Los Angeles Angels completed a sweep of the Cubs, dropping the record of Ross' club to 26-36. At the time, Chicago was in fourth place in the NL Central and had the fourth-worst record in the National League. 6.5 games back of a playoff spot, with the Cubs trending in the wrong direction, fans had begun to lose hope for the 2023 season. What came next was something that very few people saw coming.
From June 8 to September 6, the Cubs went 50-28, posting one of the sport's best records. With three and a half weeks remaining, the Cubs had a 3.5-game lead for the National League's second Wild Card.
The Cubs did not finish strong, however. Chicago dropped 15 of its final 22 games, missing the playoffs by a game. Still, the club outperformed preseason expectations, finishing with its first winning record in a full-season since 2019.
It does not appear that the Cubs front office set out on a crusade to exile Ross from the organization. Instead, the club saw an opportunity to upgrade at manager, just as it did nine years ago, and Ross was merely a casualty.
Fair or unfair, Ross received a great amount of criticism from Cubs fans this season for in-game decision-making, bullpen management and lineup construction. One decision that was heavily criticized was Ross' unwavering commitment to a struggling Ian Happ in the three-hole. In his final 120 games, Happ batted just .229 with a .336 On Base Percentage. Despite Happ's struggles, Ross refused to drop Happ in the club's lineup in favor of a surging Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki. Happ was the team's primary three-hitter, hitting third in 127 games in 2023. Bellinger primarily batted fourth, and Suzuki mostly hit fifth or sixth. As a result, Suzuki and Bellinger saw fewer at bats and opportunities to hit with runners on base. There were games that ended with Bellinger — who will likely collect some NL MVP votes — standing in the on-deck circle, with Happ recording the game's final out.
In late August, Ross defended his decision to stick with Happ.
“There’s a lot of things that you can look at from a lineup standpoint, but since we’ve been going well, Ian’s been in the three hole,” Ross told reporters. “We’ve been one of the top run scoring teams in the second half in Major League Baseball and we have a top-six offense in all of baseball. Why would I mess with that? If it ain’t broke don’t fix it kind of thing, right?”
Ross also caught flak for his hesitance to give regular playing time to some of his young players, often favoring veterans. Breakout rookie and fan favorite Christopher Morel surprisingly did not crack the club's Opening Day roster. Edwin Rios, Luis Torrens, Tucker Barnhart, Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini and Miles Mastrobuoni did. When Morel received a call-up from Triple-A Iowa in May, Ross said that he didn't see a fit for Morel to play regularly.
"I don't know that there's this big path for everyday at-bats," Ross said of Morel. "The ability to get (Nelson) Velázquez back (to AAA) and not let him sit on the bench and some ability to mix [Morel] in time to time is probably going to be more of a role than just everyday at-bats."
At the time of Ross' comments, the Cubs were 17-18, and Ross was giving regular starts to Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer, each of whom were later designated for assignment later in the season. Sure enough, Morel's power surge made him difficult to keep out of the lineup, as the young utility player clubbed 26 homers and 70 RBI in just 107 games in 2023.
After going 3-for-4 with a double, four RBI and a clutch grand slam in an early April game, Nelson Velazquez was benched and then sent down to Triple-A. He didn't receive another big league at bat for another two weeks.
Ross repeated himself in September, when top prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario received late-season call-ups. In his first career start, Canario blasted a grand slam. He did not start another game until 11 days later, in the final weekend of the regular season, and by then, the Cubs had fallen out of the playoff race. Crow-Armstrong, MLB Pipeline's no. 12 overall prospect, received only 14 at bats after he received a big league promotion in mid-September.
Ross defended his decisions by proclaiming, "We're not developing players right now", seen by some as a poor choice of words. It's entirely possible to develop players, while competing for a playoff spot. In fact, some would argue that teams should always be developing players. It might not necessarily mean thrusting rookie players into critical roles late in the season, but righting off player development as a whole might not go over well with fans.
Ross similarly bumped a red-hot Javier Assad from the Cubs rotation in the final weeks of the season, favoring instead a 32 year-old Marcus Stroman, who had logged just one quality start over the previous three months. Stroman was subsequently shelled in two critical starts, posting a 9.00 ERA, while failing to log more than three innings in each outing. In both games, Assad was called upon from the bullpen for mop-up duty.
In four years as manager, Ross compiled a 262-284 record. Ross was given the tall task of leading the Cubs through a rebuild, after parting ways with franchise staples Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and Jon Lester. To the credit of Ross, the Cubs overachieved in 2023. He seemed to have an innate ability to lead and inspire confidence in his clubhouse.. Ross had the Cubs punching above their weight in 2023. But now, the club is making a significant upgrade at manager.
Though Counsell has yet to win an NL Manager of the Year Award, he is highly regarded in the industry, considered by many as the sport's best active manager. Counsell is the winningest manager in Brewers franchise history and is a master at pushing the right buttons and putting his players in the best position to succeed. While working with a mid-level payroll, Counsell logged a 707-625 record in Milwaukee. Over the last six years, Counsell's Brewers won three NL Central division titles and reached the playoffs five times. In 2018, Counsell's club came within a game of an NL Pennant.
When the Cubs replaced Renteria with Maddon, it signaled that brighter days were ahead for the organization. It was a gesture indicating that the Cubs were close to becoming a juggernaut in the National League. In Maddon's first year, the Cubs reached the NLCS, winning 97 games. The following year, the Cubs snapped a 108-year championship drought, winning the World Series in Cleveland.
The 2024 Cubs will likely possess the highest payroll for a team that Counsell has managed. The Cubs front office put their money where their mouth was last winter, when they shelled out a combined $295.5 million to Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Jameson Taillon, Dansby Swanson and Drew Smyly last winter. Coming off an 83-win season, the Cubs appear to be ready to add even more this winter. The club has been linked to trades for New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto. But even if the Cubs stand pat in free agency and in the trade market, the club has already won the offseason with the hire of Counsell.
2024 may not be "the year" for the Cubs, but the Cubs are inching closer to being a major player in the NL Central for what could be many years to come. In fact, I wouldn't expect the Cubs to take as giant of a step from 2023 to 2024 as they did from 2014 to 2015. The Cubs have a loaded farm system, but it might take a bit more time for their blue-chip prospects to be high-impact contributors at the big league level. The Cubs have six of MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects, and their no. 9 prospect James Triantos may be on the cusp of taking home MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League.
Entering 2021, MLB Pipeline ranked the Cubs' farm system as the 22nd-best in the sport. Hoyer has since entirely remade the Cubs farm system, as they now sit at no. 4 in the site's farm system rankings.
The Cubs are not only scooping up an elite skipper, but they are also prying him away from a division rival. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers fare in the near future, without Counsell and decorated executive David Stearns, who recently became the President of Baseball Operations for the New York Mets.
The Cubs made a power move on Monday, and Counsell should be worth every penny.
