Who Could be Next D-back to Receive a Long Term Extension?
Ken Kendrick and Derrick Hall have challenged Mike Hazen and the front office to invest more in this core, and we're seeing who they've chose to invest in. In the past two years, the Arizona Diamondbacks have signed Merrill Kelly, Ketel Marte, and Corbin Carroll to contract extensions.
It's a difficult process to negotiate a long term extension, especially once a young player enters his salary arbitration seasons and approaches free agency. There are different factors in play for why a player would choose to sign an extension. For Kelly, it was a chance to remain where he's played the vast majority of his baseball career. With Marte, it was a validation for the hard work he put in over the years after being traded to Arizona and breaking out as an All-Star in 2019. For Carroll, it was rewarding a player who exhibits an exceptional commitment to the organization and love for the game with a record-breaking extension.
With Arizona locking up their best extension candidate for the 2023 season, I decided to list four candidates who the team should explore a long term extension with before the start of the 2024 season, should they go on to have a solid 2023 season. For this exercise, I picked only players who are in their pre-arbitration years.
Catcher Gabriel Moreno
Moreno was the centerpiece of the Daulton Varsho trade and is under team control through the 2028 season. A catcher who offers the offensive and defensive skill set to be a potential All-Star caliber player, he is a part of the current core of young players on the team along with Carroll, Kelly, and Marte.
As he continues to get comfortable in the big leagues and handling a new set of pitchers, there will be a path to more playing time and he could see closer to a 50/50 split with Carson Kelly as the season progresses. So far this spring, the bat has looked very impressive as he's shown the ability to find holes in the defense in two-strike counts and has also launched a pair of home runs.
Quality backstops are hard to find and cost a premium to acquire in free agency or the trade market, as we've seen with Willson Contreras and Sean Murphy. Contreras signed a five-year, $87.5 million contract with the Cardinals and Murphy cost the Braves not only William Contreras, but also took a big bite out of their farm system. By locking up Moreno long term, Arizona can have a potential frontline starting catcher without having to pay that kind of price. For this reason if he performs as expected in 2023 then next off season would be a good time to open negotiations.
Outfielder Alek Thomas
Thomas struggled with the bat as a rookie, putting up a 76 OPS+ in 103 games and 411 plate appearances. However he also comes with a strong track record of hitting in the minor leagues with above-average strikeout and walk rates at each stop, so his bat should improve with more experience. The type of production he may provide at the plate will determine his likely ceiling as a player. If Thomas is carrying an OPS+ of 85-90, he's an everyday center fielder on the strength of his defense and speed.
His best defensive position is center field, where his plus speed allows him to cover a lot of ground. Thomas looks so smooth playing the position, it almost looks like he's gliding out there and makes a lot of difficult plays look easy. Every year he's healthy in his 20s, he should be a contender to win a Gold Glove at the position.
Despite his struggles with the bat as a rookie, I believe he'll develop into at least a league-average hitter and put up some solid offensive seasons with 20 home runs and 20 steals at his peak. Given his minor league exit velocity numbers, I believe there is the potential for more power in his bat in the future. The key will be getting more of his pulled contact to be in the air without sacrificing from his exceptional ability to drive pitches on the outer third of the plate to the opposite field.
The higher his OPS+ climbs, the higher his potential ceiling could be. If Thomas puts up an OPS+ greater than 100 in 2023, the D-backs should explore an extension that keeps him in Arizona beyond the 2028 season. He's not the highest priority to extend with Carroll already under control through the 2030 season and the organization's strong depth in the outfield the next 3-4 years.
Right-Handed Pitcher Brandon Pfaadt
With pitchers, extensions are even trickier because they carry more inherent risk of injury and typically have a more volatile range of future outcomes than hitters.
Of all the top pitchers in Arizona's system, Pfaadt presents the least volatile long-term projection. There's a strong chance he develops into at least a middle of the rotation starter and could contribute as early as Opening Day if he wins the final rotation spot.
The D-backs No. 2 prospect throws a 4-seamer that's 93-97 MPH that comes from a very low release point, coming into the strike zone at a flatter angle, and has some natural cutting action. His best secondary is a slider in the mid 80s that rates as plus, but his curveball and changeup are above-average offerings as well. With a solid repertoire and high likelihood of sticking in the rotation long term, it could make sense for the team to explore an extension next off season to add some long term certainty.
Shortstop Jordan Lawlar
This type of extension would likely come from a similar situation with Carroll, except a year from now. The D-backs No. 3 prospect had an impressive first year with the organization, reaching Double-A in his Age 19 season and could debut at some point in this upcoming season.
An offensive-minded shortstop who should hit for a high average with above-average power and plus speed, he has the ceiling of a 20 home run, 30 stolen base threat at the top of the order. He and Carroll are perfect candidates to hold down the top two spots in the order when in the same lineup.
His defense is still a work in progress, although I have more questions about his arm strength than his range and hands. That arm may cause him to move off short to a different position, but has the athleticism and bat to handle any position on the diamond. In the meantime, the team will continue to develop him as a shortstop and hopefully Lawlar adds more arm strength as he adds more muscle in his early 20s.
There is some injury history, as his 2021 season ended needing surgery on his non-throwing shoulder and then suffered a fractured scapula in the same shoulder a year later. Neither injury should affect him long term, so I don't think there is any added health risks. The ballpark to sign Lawlar to a long term deal will be roughly similar to Carroll, in which the D-backs may need to commit to a nine figure deal to make happen.
