Can Anyone Challenge Corbin Carroll for NL ROY?
Corbin Carroll has had a sensational and historic rookie season. The 22 year old phenom came up late last year and flashed his potential, but this year Carroll has wowed the baseball world with a combination of speed and power seldom seen in such a young player.
To date Carroll's slash line is .283/.361/.539, .900 OPS, 140 OPS+ in 376 plate appearances. He has 20 doubles, four triples, and 19 homers. His 29 stolen bases are 3rd most in MLB, and he's only been caught three times. His 91% success rate is the highest of anyone in the top 10 in stolen bases.
It's all added up to 4.2 bWAR in 92 games played with 65 team games remaining. Should he maintain this pace he would put up a 7 WAR season and end up with over 31 homers and 48 stolen bases. While maintaining such a pace through the end of his first full season in the majors will be difficult, he has a chance to match Mike Trout's best all time power/speed combo from his rookie season in 2012. Here is the short list of players that have reached at least 19 homers and 29 steals in their rookie seasons.
Jack Sommers
So is there any other player in the National League that can challenge Carroll for the rookie of the year ? The short answer to that question is no, not if Carroll remains healthy and plays even at just a league average clip from here forward. But if for any reason Carroll was not able to add to his current resume, there are two players that could conceivably make a charge over the final 60 games or so. They both play for this weekend's opponent, and ironically neither of them are named Elly De La Cruz.
Lets deal with the elephant in the room first. De La Cruz is an exciting young player with a huge tool box. He too possesses a dynamic power and speed combination seldom seen in a player. However at the tender age of 21 he lacks one important tool that is limiting him at the moment. Plate discipline. De La Cruz has struck out 51 times in 165 PA, or 31%. By comparison league average is 22.7% and Carroll's is 20.5%. It should be noted that De La Cruz posted strikeout percentages between 27-31% through most of his minor league career as well, so this is not a new issue for him.
That high strikeout rate and low walk rate, (just 10 walks so far) is limiting De La Cruz' on base opportunities and suppressing his value. With 17 steals in just 37 games he is an absolute terror on the base paths, even more so than Carroll. If he ever increases his OBP over .350 watch out. He could easily surpass 80 steals. His slash line of .279/.321/.443, .763 OPS is fine for a rookie. He has just four homers however and a league average 100 OPS+ while playing in an extreme homer friendly ballpark. He has 0.6 WAR and should not be in serious discussions for the award at this juncture.
The two Reds rookies that are having excellent seasons that need to be paid closer attention to are Andrew Abbott and Matt McLain
Abbott is a 24 year old rookie who was taken by the Reds in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft out of the university of Virginia. With just 2+ minor league seasons and 39 starts under his belt he made his debut on June 5th in spectacular fashion, throwing six scoreless innings of one-hit ball in a victory over the Brewers. He's allowed zero or one run in six of his nine starts, and had just one hiccup, allowing six runs to the Brewers on July 7th. His most recent outing was an eight inning, one-hit scoreless gem in a win against the Giants yesterday. (The D-backs will not face him this weekend) It's all added up to a 5-2 record with a 2.10 ERA and 2.9 Baseball Reference WAR. He does have a 4.10 FIP however, so there are potentially sustainability issues. His Fangraphs WAR is just 1.1 as a result of the high FIP.
McLain was the Diamondbacks first round pick, 25th overall back in 2018. Opting not to sign, instead going to UCLA, he was drafted three years later by the Reds. The 23 year old made his MLB debut on May 15th in Colorado and has hit extremely well from the start. In 56 games, 259 PA he has a ..298/.363/.506 slash line good for a .869 OPS, 128 OPS+. He has 17 doubles, four triples and eight homers with 30 RBI. He's played above average defense at shortstop and second base as well. His all round game has added up to 2.2 WAR and he could potentially surpass 4+ WAR if he keeps up this pace.
There isn't really anyone else close. Kodai Senga of the Mets is 7-5, 3.20 ERA and 2.0 WAR. Eury Perez of the Marlins is 5-3 with a shiny 2.36 ERA in 11 starts, adding up to 1.9 WAR. Excellent, but well back. One other honorable mention from the Reds is Spencer Steer. He is hitting .270 with 14 homers and 51 RBI and has 1.5 WAR in 398 plate appearances.
The NL Rookie of the year award is more than just Carroll's to lose. It's virtually locked up. It would take something truly spectacular both in terms of a falloff from Carroll and a charge from one of the players listed here to make the race even a close one.
