Comparing the Diamondbacks and Rangers Bullpens

As the Diamondbacks and Rangers face off tonight in game one of the 2023 World Series at 5:03 Arizona Time, 7:03 CST, their two best starters will be on the mounds. Both teams will be hoping those starters can get deep into the ballgame. But neither manager, Torey Lovullo or Bruce Bochy will hesitate to go to their bullpen early if either Zac Gallen or Nathan Eovaldi get into trouble.

If one were looking at just the full regular season team level bullpen stats they would conclude that these are two below average bullpens playing in the World Series. That would be only half true.

For the full season the Diamondbacks 4.22 reliever ERA ranked 18th in the league and the Rangers 4.77 ERA ranked 24th. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching ranked the D-backs 23rd with a 4.34 mark, and the Rangers were 24th at 4.45.

It's at this point however where the narrative diverges. Back on October 7th Michael McDermott chronicled how the D-backs revamped their bullpen. After trying and failing to go bullpen by committee they finally abandoned that experiment and traded for a closer in Paul Sewald at the August trade deadline. A couple of weeks later they picked up submariner Ryan Thompson off waivers from the Rays. Those additions allowed Kevin Ginkel to slide into a dominant 8th inning role and the rest of the relievers to settle in to the middle innings.

In September the D-backs had the third best bullpen ERA in MLB with a 2.31 ERA. Their FIP was 4.00 but still ranked 11th best in the league for the month. So far in 12 post season games they have a 2.94 ERA and 3.40 FIP. They've allowed 16 earned runs in 49 innings but six of those earned runs came in Game 2 of the NLCS in a 10-0 blowout. In the other 11 playoff games they've given up just 10 earned runs in 46.2 IP, for a 1.93 ERA. Sewald and Ginkel have yet to allow a run this postseason and the closer is a perfect 6-for-6 in save chances.

The Rangers by comparison did not improve in September, they actually got worse as their bullpen ERA ballooned to 5.08 and FIP increased to 4.70. They've been better in the postseason however, posting a 3.72 ERA, but their FIP is an unsightly 5.28 over their 12 playoff games.

Texas traded for Aroldis Chapman on June 30th and he was lights out the first 16 games for Texas, giving up just three runs, all in one outing, while walking only four batters and striking out 31 in 16 innings. Starting on August 21st he began to slump, allowing runs in eight of his final 14 games appeared in through the end of the season. He walked 12 and struck out 19. He's been much better in the postseason, giving up just one run in 6.1 innings. He has four walks and just four strikeouts, so the wildness is still there. His 6.41 postseason FIP so far does not indicate he's "fixed".

Will Smith recorded 22 saves with five blown but had a 4.40 ERA and was moved to a setup role in mid August. Bochy turned to Jose Leclerc, and it's been a roller coaster. The fireballer recorded a 2.68 ERA and struck out 67 batters in 57 innings during the season. After Smith was removed from the closer's role Leclerc saved three games and blew three saves down the stretch. In the postseason he's saved three and blown one game in the ALCS and has a 4.35 ERA in 10.1 postseason innings that include six walks and three homers, leading to a 6.84 FIP

The best Rangers reliever this postseason has been Josh Sborz. He had a 5.50 ERA during the regular season but his FIP was much better at 3.75. He struck out 66 and walked 17 in 51 innings. He gave up eight homers among his 43 hits leading to some untimely runs. In eight postseason outings he's given up just one run on two hits, walked four and struck out seven.

Based on all of the above, the bullpen appears to be a clear advantage for the Diamondbacks. That may or may not be enough to completely offset the Rangers larger advantage on the offensive side of things, which we reviewed yesterday. Starting pitching will still be key, as will defense and base running. Those factors may favor the D-backs as well, evening out the series.

Comparing the Diamondbacks and Rangers Bullpens

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