Carroll's Rookie Year Could Be Best in D-backs History
Corbin Carroll is off to a hot start to his rookie season. In his first 54 games, he's batting .287 with nine home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an .888 OPS. Baseball Reference sums up his entire output this season to be worth 2.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). His contributions are a big reason why Arizona enters play today with the best record in the National League at 34-23.
It can be tough to project how a player finishes their rookie season, some players will hit a proverbial rookie wall and others will smash through it. If we extrapolate his output for the rest of the season, he's on pace for 25 home runs, 45 stolen bases, and 6.0 WAR. From a home runs and stolen bases standpoint, only three times has a rookie had 25 home runs and 25 steals in MLB history. Chris Young is the only player who did not win the award, finishing in 4th in 2007 while Mike Trout and Julio Rodríguez went on to easily win in their years.
Going back to some of the best rookie seasons in franchise history, Brandon Webb's 6.1 mark in 2003 is at the top. From a position player standpoint, Ender Inciarte leads at 3.3. That's a mark that Carroll should easily top, perhaps even before the All-Star break. Breaking Webb's mark will be a much more difficult task, but could be possible if Carroll has a second half surge with the bat and continues to improve defensively.
What makes Carroll special isn't just the tools and all-around impact, but his ability to quickly make the proper adjustments. He's already cut down his strikeout rate significantly, going from 27.0% last season to 19.9%, while simultaneously improving his walk rate from 7.0% to 10.7%. That means he's not only making more contact, but also getting on base more and allowing him to use his elite speed as a weapon. Twice this season, he's had a game with two stolen bases and a home run. That's a feat that's been accomplished twice since 1997, with Álex Rodríguez and Mike Trout being the other two.
On defense, he is getting better jumps on the ball. He is reading and reacting to balls put into play quicker, getting an extra 0.4 feet on his jump. Compared to the average outfielder, Carroll's jumps get 2.3 feet above average. Here is an example of how a great jump, combined with that speed, makes a batted ball with a 40% catch probability look like a routine out.
Should Carroll make the All-Star Game, which will be hosted in his hometown of Seattle this year, it would be the second time a D-backs rookie made the All-Star team. Wade Miley did it in 2012, en route to a second place finish behind Bryce Harper for the National League Rookie of the Year award. Jack Sommers makes the case for why Carroll is deserving of an All-Star nod.
For the D-backs, Carroll emergence as a future star not only helps them in the present but also could create more opportunities to add impact talent to the organization. Winning Rookie of the Year would give Arizona an extra first round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.
