Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Brandon Pfaadt
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Brandon Pfaadt had an extremely rocky first season in the majors. After performing exceptionally well and being named Arizona's minor league pitcher of the year in 2022, Pfaadt was called up to the majors three separate times in 2023. He struggled heavily in his first two stints, but began to develop into a more reliable pitcher his third time up. He was excellent in the postseason, pitching in multiple crucial games and ending the playoffs with a 3.27 ERA.
The Projection
Brandon Pfaadt projection
Alex D'Agostino
It was a very small sample size, but Pfaadt's numbers in the regular season of 2023 were very below average. Both ZiPS and Steamer expect a significant improvement for the young starter in 2024. ZiPS has the right-hander dipping below a 4.00 ERA, while Steamer is a little bit stingier, expecting a shakier 4.40.
These average out to a much better overall season than Pfaadt delivered last year regardless. There is expected to be some improvement in the home run department, although his projected average of 1.7 HR/9 still sits well below average. Neither system projects Pfaadt to reach 150 innings of work, but they do both project Pfaadt to rack up some strikeouts, projecting a solid 8.45 K/9 when averaging the two projections.
It's not surprising to see his ERA and FIP projected significantly lower than his 2023 regular season, due to the fact that his pace as a whole was better than the numbers showed because of his extremely rough first and second MLB stints. These projections do take into account minor league performances, where Pfaadt was much more solid than his small sample size of major league action showed.
Why Pfaadt might outperform this projection
Pfaadt has the bones to be a very solid MLB pitcher. What was most encouraging about his quick rise in 2023 was the fact that his dominance came in the playoffs. Facing off against the top teams in baseball, Pfaadt pitched to a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. After coming off a little shaky against Milwaukee in game one of the wild card, he was brilliant in his final four starts of the postseason, including a 4 1/3 inning shutout of the Dodgers and a 5 2/3 inning, nine strikeout performance against Philadelphia to help the D-backs take a crucial game three of the NLCS.
In his time in Triple-A Reno, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Pfaadt pitched to an impressive 2.63 ERA in his first season with the Aces, striking out 74 batters over 61 2/3 innings.
He was solid again in his minor league portion of 2023 as well, with a 3.71 ERA and a 69/16 K/BB in 60 2/3 innings. By all accounts, he has the stuff and level-headedness to maintain his upward trajectory and outperform even a projected rise.
Pfaadt's breaking run value sits in the 80th percentile, helped along by his devastating sweeper (8). Once pitching coach Brent Strom made the decision to move him to the other side of the rubber, Pfaadt's deception factor with his breaking pitches rose, and his ability to hit spots and pitch the edge of the zone drastically increased.
Pfaadt has the potential to become an even better pitcher than we could imagine. If his playoff performances are any indication of what he can do against the best hitters in the sport, and he benefits from a more stable starting D-backs rotation, his 2024 looks bright.
Why Pfaadt might underperform this projction
As with Pfaadt's problematic numbers, his solid ones also come in a small sample size. While the young right-hander put together three excellent performances in the playoffs, and there was a notable difference between his second and third regular season stints, the argument could be made that there wasn't enough substance and consistency to be able to expect that drastic of a difference in ERA right away.
Overall, Pfaadt ranked near the bottom in almost every Statcast metric, with a -15 pitching run value and bottom 20% rankings in hard hit % and barrel rate. He had a ground ball rate of only 32.6%, an 8th percentile number.
While he can be a strikeout machine, he could be in for another tough year in the majors if he can't figure out how to pitch to soft contact occasionally. His home run issue calmed down a bit, but still remains very concerning. He is very inexperienced, and the effect of being a new pitcher with stuff that batters aren't used to could become less and less of a factor.
Pfaadt rarely saw the order more than twice. The D-backs will need him to be able to consistently go more than four to five innings in a start. Pfaadt allowed a .397 batting average the third time through the order, but that translated to an unbelievable .779 slugging percentage allowed to opponents. His stamina and ability to stay in control of the batters a third time through will be in serious need of development, and he won't be very effective if that can't be improved upon.
Despite the improvement, Pfaadt might not be able to look exceptionally better than he did for most of last season.
Summary
It's hard to say for sure what could happen to a pitcher with as little experience as Pfaadt. While the projections show a notable improvement in most categories compared to his dismal regular season, it might be foolish to expect the absolute dominance from his playoff starts. Pfaadt is a pitcher with plenty of success in the minors, and he's shown that he can be a deadly strikeout pitcher, but his 2024 is still very much in question.
