Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Corbin Carroll
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on Fangraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Today's article covers Corbin Carroll's projection. No player will be of more interest to fans than the team's budding superstar. Carroll had an historic 2023, starting in the All-Star game, playing in the world series, and winning Rookie of Year, among several other awards and accolades.
The Projection
Corbin Carroll 2024 Projection
Jack Sommers
At first glance this projection appears to be a slight step back from 2023 for Carroll. While the 4.6 WAR projection is still that of a top 10 MLB outfielder, it's lower than his 2023 aWAR. (aWAR is the average of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs WAR) This is due mostly to a noticeable drop in power projection from both systems. ISO, or isolated power is slugging minus batting average, and is a way to help isolate how much power a player is hitting with. ZiPS saw the biggest drop, with just 20 homers and 56 extra base hits in 636 PA, while Steamer projected 26 homers and 67 extra base hits in 679 PA. Both systems are projecting an ISO well below his previous levels with ZiPS the lower of the two.
At the same time this projection sees Carroll increasing his walk rates. It should be noted that he had a 15% minor league walk rate in 2022, and the minor league data for a player with so few MLB plate appearances still impacts the projection. It takes approximately three full major league seasons before prior minor league performance has little or no impact on the projection. This is an important point to remember for Diamondbacks players in particular as the roster has so many players entering just their 2nd or 3rd year in MLB.
Why Carroll might outperform this projection
Carroll's speed allows him to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. These extra bases taken could help push up his extra base hit totals, and thus his slugging and OPS to higher than projected levels. It's notable that his most comparable player though age 22 is Grady Sizemore. Sizemore was a standout centerfielder for the Cleveland Guardians before injuries wrecked his career. In his age 23 season Sizemore posted .907 OPS, including 28 homers and 58 doubles, and racked up 6.7 WAR
Last year Carroll's defense rated three runs below average according to both Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant's Statcast metrics, which are the basis for Fangraphs defense component in their WAR metric. With another year of experience allowing him to get better reads, Carroll might leverage his speed better. Arm strength is a weakness but his throwing metrics can be improved with better release time and accuracy. The intangibles matter as well. Carroll has a tremendous work ethic and exhausts every avenue to improve his process and performance.
Why Carroll might underperform this projection
On June 13th Carroll was hitting .313/.398/.599, .998 OPS and was being discussed as a potential MVP candidate. He slumped badly his next 15 games however and then battled shoulder issues, which while not keeping out of the lineup, may have impacted his swing somewhat. From June 14th to the end of the regular season, a span of 91 games and 383 PA Carroll hit just .266/.336/.444, with a .780 OPS. While still above league average, this was well below the lofty levels reached earlier in the season. He ran hot and cold in the post season, ultimately putting up similar numbers, .273/.363/.409, .773 OPS in 78 PA.
Sophomore slumps are a real thing, and are usually driven by teams making adjustments in how they pitch to a batter. The young player often needs considerable time to figure out the counter adjustments. A recent example of this is Julio Rodriguez, the Seattle Mariners rookie of the year in 2022. His OPS dropped from .853 to .818 this past season. He struggled a great deal in his first 100 games, posting a lowly .709 OPS. He finally getting hot over his final 58 games to hit for a .944 OPS. The end result was still a ways off his rookie campaign however.
Summary
While some may find this projection disappointing, it needs to be remembered these are median projections, that include a fair amount of regression to the mean. This is actually a strong projection for Carroll, as it still ranks him as a top 10 outfielder in all of MLB. If he can avoid the sophomore slump syndrome he could easily blow past this median projection.
