Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Dominic Fletcher
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own, and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
The D-backs called up left-handed hitting outfielder Dominic Fletcher for the first time in late April, and his bat was an immediate impact. Fletcher slashed .303/.346/.461 with 13 RBI and 2 home runs in his first full month, hitting as high as .462 at one point in his early stint.
Unfortunately, he began to quickly cool off, hitting less and striking out more as his major league time extended. Ultimately, he would be sent down again after a rough end to May, and played in just six more games for the remainder of the season due to a fracture in his left index finger.
Fletcher showed massive potential early on, but ultimately wasn't ready to consistently produce at the MLB level. He put up solid numbers in Triple-A, but now faces the tough task of overcoming the likes of Jake McCarthy and Jorge Barrosa for the fourth outfielder spot--a tough task, as he will likely sit at the bottom of that three-man ladder unless something exceptional happens in Spring Training.
The Projection
Alex D'Agostino
Our playing time projections only have Fletcher getting 91 plate appearances, even fewer than his previous short stint in MLB. Although he's projected to hit at a decent average, his numbers look to take a significant dip compared to his stretch of raking in 2023.
His entire slash line is expected to drop by around 40 points or more, and while he's expected to walk at a slightly higher rate, the projections expect even more strikeouts and even less effective production at the plate for the 26-year old left-handed bat.
His aWAR shows little value to the D-backs in 2024, and neither Steamer nor ZiPS expects an impact year for the outfielder at the plate.
Why Fletcher might outperform this projection
It's easy to look at a short sample size and dismiss solid numbers as nothing but empty calories. But the truth is, he was hitting the ball very well. Fletcher wasn't struggling with legging out weak grounders or liner singles in low leverage situations, he was squaring up the ball, hitting it hard and producing RBI and slug in RISP situations.
He hit the sweet-spot of the bat at a very high rate, and slugged a very respectable .441, but he was slugging an incredible .690 through his first few weeks of major league actions.
He provided a 5 run value with his bat, and offered solid defense, with a good arm value and range in his limited action.
Fletcher slashed .291/.399/.500/.899 in Reno, and has had an .850+ OPS in three of his four minor league seasons, so the consistency in production is there. Since his swing appears to be solid and he makes good contact, he likely only needs some more time to develop into a more solid bat.
A very strong spring training isn't out of the question, and if he can come in to provide that shot in the arm to the D-backs lineup again, he could earn himself some more playing time. With more playing time, and more consistency, he could easily outperform these low projections.
Why Fletcher might underperform this projection
Fletcher will likely struggle to exceed our playing time projections, and it might be difficult for him to even reach 91 plate appearances. There's a world in which he's not even on the major league roster in 2024, depending on how the McCarthy/Barrosa numbers look, and whether or not Joc Pederson ends up taking any outfield playing time.
Even with all of the production Fletcher showed in his first stint, he also struck out more than 21% of the time. Although he raked for his first few weeks, he ended his best month with a sub-par 17/5 K/BB ratio.
Although he did hit and slug well, his expected numbers were much lower than his actual numbers. His xBA (.220) was over 80 points lower than his actual average, and his xSLG (.328) was nearly 120 points lower than his actual slugging percentage.
At a diminutive 5-foot-6, 185 pounds, the power will have to come from his swing rather than his frame, and without above-average, he lacks qualities like speed and size that McCarthy would provide, and profiles similarly size-wise to Jorge Barrosa.
Fletcher will compete for the fourth outfielder spot, but will have a lot of work ahead of him to win such an uphill battle. In all likeliness, Fletcher doesn't see significant playing time, and unless major development occurs, his inconsistency won't allow him to outperform a modest projection behind the logjam of Arizona's left-handed outfielder group.
Summary
D-backs fans likely remember Fletcher's quick rise, but his fall-off was just as rapid. Without much opportunity to develop in 2023, he could be poised to take a leap and produce at the major league level. However, it will be hard for him to earn that opportunity, and his inconsistencies might plague any action he might be awarded.
