Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: José Herrera
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 Spring Training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own, and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
José Herrera served as Arizona's backup catcher for the majority of 2023. He spent some time down in Triple-A when Carson Kelly returned from injury, but ended up mostly offering days off to young stud catcher Gabriel Moreno. Although Seby Zavala was added in September, Herrera ended up serving as Arizona's backup in the postseason.
Herrera frequently worked with ace Zac Gallen, but was offensively ineffective. He collected just five extra-base hits in 2023 behind a below-average slash, and has yet to hit his first major league home run, through 90 MLB games and over 240 plate appearances.
The Projection
Alex D'Agostino
Herrera's projections expect a decent improvement to his slash, with a nearly 70-point increase in OPS. That being said, his numbers are still projected to come out well below average, and our playing time projection expects even less opportunity for the switch-hitter.
He's expected to raise his slug to above .300 for the first time, and reach base at a slightly higher rate, but continue to strike out at a high rate and hit at a below-average pace.
However, he is expected to provide positive aWAR for the first time in his career, although by a very thin margin. His projections expect an improvement, but don't predict an effective season for Herrera.
Why Herrera might outperform this projection
Herrera is young, and with very little major league experience, he could benefit from some more playing time and find a way to get into a rhythm. Generally speaking, he was good for a few singles here and there, and any improvement in his pop could help him be an asset to the D-backs.
Herrera walks at a solid rate, and rarely chases outside the zone. His strikeouts aren't a result of reckless swinging, and he is able to get on base. He also provides some defensive value to the D-backs, with three Caught Stealing above average in limited starts and a 78th percentile pop time, under two seconds.
Herrera could see some action, and there's still time for improvement, but it will have to be significant to outperform these projections.
Why Herrera might underperform this projection
Herrera has been consistently rough at the plate in his career. He's never passed the eye test, and his numbers don't suggest any underlying skill that might not be apparent.
With the addition of Tucker Barnhart, it will be very difficult, barring an injury, for Herrera to earn enough playing time to truly surpass his expectations in 2024.
He rarely squares up the ball, has little to no speed, and even throughout 90 major league games and over 240 plate appearances, he's only racked up seven extra-base hits and zero career home runs in the majors. His career ground ball rate is more than 10 points above average.
He hasn't been significantly effective in the minors, either. In 101 at-bats in Reno, he slashed just .257/.351/.366 with a .740 OPS. If he can't even consistently perform at a Triple-A level, he's either too far off in his development, or just not worthy of being a part of this team's long-term plans.
Defensively, while he can throw runners out at a decent rate, his framing sits in the bottom half of MLB, and he had -6 rDRS with the D-backs in 2023. He'll need to have a major improvement both at and behind the plate to win any significant playing time or to outperform his projections.
Summary
Herrera has a tough road ahead of him if he wants to surpass these projections. While he is projected improvement, he likely won't have a great deal of opportunity on the major league roster, and even with some level of opportunity, both his numbers and underlying skillset suggest a modest projection is the best case scenario. He could still improve due to his solid plate discipline and ability to throw runners out, but his batted ball metrics and framing need an overhaul.
