Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Ryan Thompson
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
The D-backs picked up right-handed reliever Ryan Thompson on a minor league deal after his tenure with the Tampa Bay Rays had ended. Thompson had pitched to a 2.45 ERA with the Rays in his first 12 appearances, but suffered a brutal 5-run outing that ballooned his ERA up past 6.00. He struggled here and there, but, once in the D-backs organization, he was called up for a crucial save against the Cincinnati Reds in his first appearance with Arizona.
Thompson then ended his 2023 on an incredible run, allowing just one earned run for the remainder of the regular season. He brought his 5.79 ERA down to a 3.82 in that stretch, and continued to pitch well, with a 2.31 ERA in nearly as many playoff innings as he pitched in his D-backs regular season tenure.
He took on a regular role in Arizona's bullpen, primarily pitching in the sixth or seventh inning, teaming up with Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald as a part of a lock-down back end reliever rotation.
The Projection
Alex D'Agostino
Thompson's projection expects him to suffer slight regression in most categories. Our playing time projections have him taking on a decent workload, but nothing exceptional, hopefully as a result of starters being able to go seven innings more consistently and a lack of regular bullpen games.
He's expected to increase his ERA by 30 points, but ever so slightly decrease his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).
Despite some regression, Thompson is still projected to have a solid season, and continue to be a relatively reliable arm.
Why Thompson might outperform this projection
Thompson pitched brilliantly with the D-backs in 2023. The change of scenery did him good, but, to be honest, he hadn't even struggled that heavily with the Rays.
It's puzzling as to why Tampa Bay was so keen to rid themselves of the right-hander, as he'd been solid at worse, and excellent at best in all four years of his career.
Primarily a sinker/slider arm, Thompson produced a brilliant 62.5% ground ball rate in 2023, and has produced at least an above average ground ball percentage every year of his career. Thompson lives off soft contact, but has still shown an ability to produce strikeouts, although not frequently in 2023.
While he didn't allow many hits, he also walked batters at a very solid rate. Since he's hovered decently below a 7% walk rate for his entire career, there's no reason to assume he will regress in that department.
Although he didn't pitch enough to fully qualify his Statcast metrics, he was still well above average in nearly every category, and the fact that he was able to allow just four runs over almost 25 innings in the regular and postseason with Arizona is an impressive feat.
But Thompson didn't just pitch well to the numbers. He was good against both right and left-handed batters, and allowed a minuscule .188 opposing batting average in high leverage innings.
Thompson was a critical arm in the biggest moments, allowing an absolutely ridiculous .121/.216/.152 with men in scoring position.
Thompson's unique sidearm delivery--notably modeled after former D-backs closer Byung-hyun Kim--offers above average extension, and provides a good deal of deception to his pitches. An excellent complement to the other various arm deliveries in the pen and an arsenal that is both deceptive and conducive to soft contact, with little to suggest any decline could lead to a much better year for Thompson than the projections expect.
Why Thompson might underperform this projection
Thompson was extremely good with the D-backs. The fact of the matter is that it will be nearly impossible for him to give up runs at as slow a rate as he did in 2023. Regression to the mean might not signal a terrible season for the right-hander, but he's certainly due to have a bit of a setback.
While he was excellent as a ground ball pitcher, he suffered a major drop in K% and whiff rate. If he struggles to produce ground balls at the same rate, we could see his numbers spike.
Additionally, Thompson has generally been the beneficiary of excellent defense, considering his 4.33 FIP was 50 points higher than his ERA, and his BABIP was an incredible .202.
If a few more balls go the wrong way, or the defense falters in any way, his numbers could look worse than the projections expect. Similarly, his velocity has never been a huge part of his game, with his fastball barely topping out at 90MPH. Although an excellent soft contact pitcher, all of his pitches suffer minus movement against the average.
Thompson is mostly a one-trick pitcher, with an emphasis on hitting the lower third of the zone and below. If his control drops, or batters begin to adapt to his stuff, he could be serving up a buffet of meatballs.
Summary
Thompson was an extremely sturdy and critical arm in both the regular season and the playoffs for Arizona. While his projections expect a drop in that production, the sidewinder has the potential to continue being a deceptive, lock-down presence in late, clutch innings. He could suffer some regression from his 2023 dominance, but will likely continue to be a reliable reliever.
