Diamondbacks 2024 Projections: Corbin Martin
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 Spring Training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Corbin Martin was set up to be an important bullpen arm for the 2023 team during Spring Training last year. He performed well and looked strong. The D-backs saw the glimpses of potential they saw in him when they traded for him in the 2019 Zack Greinke trade. Then, during his outing on March 16th, he suffered a season-ending injury to his right arm. He tore his Latissimus tendon and underwent surgery. The surgery allowed Martin to have a healthy and normal offseason as he prepares for an important 2024 season.
This was not the first time that Corbin Martin has had to work through adversity and come back from injury. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2019. He's dealt with numerous injuries since. However, with him healthy and strong, he will look to make good on his bullpen promise that he showcased last March.
The Projection
Corbin Martin Projection
Jack Sommers
Working as a full-time reliever for the first time in his career, Martin is projected for 20 appearances in which he works one inning each time and pitches 20 innings. He'll be entering his age-28 season and only has 2+ years of service time with the majority of that coming on the Injured List. Thus, he's a bit of a wild card as to how he will perform and/or how much he will pitch.
The Diamondbacks were granted a fourth option year on Martin. This will allow the team to shuttle him between Triple-A Reno and the Major League roster without fear of having to DFA him or have him be claimed on waivers. He was granted a 4th option year because he didn't spend time on an MLB or MiLB roster in 2020 and missed all of last season. The team has exhausted its three option years already. Since he missed last season, that fourth option year extends to this year.
Aside from health, the big notice with his projections has to do with his walk rate and BABIP. He's projected to see a good decrease in walks this season. While 10% is still above average, it would be far better than his prior years. Meanwhile, his .302 BABIP portends the belief that he will give up fewer hits. That helps explain his drop-off in ERA projection as compared to his 2022 number while his FIP stayed relatively the same. He's projected for his first positive WAR number for a season.
Why Corbin Martin Could Outperform This Projection
The obvious reasoning is that Martin is a total wildcard. If he stays healthy and gets back on track from his 2023 Spring Training, then Martin could become a lethal weapon in the D-backs' bullpen. He's never worked out of the bullpen, especially in one-inning workloads for an extended period. It was always for a short period whether in MLB or minors.
In five games last Spring Training, Martin had a 3.18 ERA over 5.2 innings with two runs allowed. He struck out nine with just two walks and six hits given up. If this version of Martin shows up this year, he's nearly guaranteed a job in the Opening Day bullpen. Plus, that kind of performance will lend credence to the belief that Martin's pitches play up in short stints.
One can't say he's a good Spring Training performer either as in 2022, he had a 7.00 ERA in three games and nine innings. In 2021, his ERA was 8.53 in three games and 6.1 innings. Perhaps, his change to relieving will allow him to fully break out and perform up to his potential. It will at least hopefully allow him to stay healthy and contribute.
Martin has looked better in relief in the few instances he's done it in MLB. In his five games as a reliever with the D-backs, Martin has a 4.40 ERA over 14.1 innings with six walks and 14 strikeouts. Whereas when he is starting, he has a 5.63 ERA over two games and eight innings.
Thus, it isn't out of the realm of possibility or likelihood that Martin becomes a successful middle reliever with the potential for a late-inning workload. One could say that he has already proven that all he needs is health and opportunities to do just that. With the 4th year option allowing him the ability to stay on the 40-man roster, he will get just that.
Why Martin Might Under-perform This Projection
One can't ignore the fact that Martin has missed just so much time due to injury. At some point, it just becomes too much to overcome. He missed half of 2019, all of 2020, parts of 2021 and 2022, and all of 2023. It isn't through any fault of his. It's just bad luck. He could get injured again and miss an extended amount of time.
Martin could display reduced velocity or sharpness on his pitches after not pitching for nearly an entire year. There are a lot of unknowns as to just how he will perform this Spring Training. Martin might not have the same ability as he did last March when he was mowing down hitters and showcasing his ability as a reliever.
He's not known as a reliever. He has worked his entire career as a starting pitcher until last Spring Training. This will only be his second time preparing and attempting to become a reliever. It could backfire or he could be a dreaded Quad-A player. There are just so many unknowns that 2024 could easily be a down year for him.
Plus, it isn't like he has experienced extended success in MLB yet. His career ERA is 6.71 after 57.2 innings and 10 starts with seven games relieved. While he was relatively successful in 2022 with a 4.84 ERA in seven games, that doesn't mean he will get any more than a handful of games this season in the team's bullpen. They can't give an unproven and struggling player time to figure out his issues in an MLB bullpen. Not with the team's playoff hopes and aspirations.
Summary
Corbin Martin is a talented right-handed pitcher coming off a missed season due to an arm injury. Arm injuries create a lot of risk and uncertainty for a pitcher's performance. However, Martin is a former top prospect who showed a lot of promise and potential as a reliever before his injury last spring. If he can stay healthy, there's a decent shot he can deliver on that potential this season. If he can't, he's valuable depth in Reno in case of emergencies or injuries. The most important thing for the Diamondbacks and Corbin Martin is for him to stay healthy and have a strong Spring Training to showcase his abilities.
