D-backs "Hopeful" to Land J.D. Martinez as Right-Handed Bat
J.D. Martinez will be looking for a new team this offseason after the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to be their designated hitter for the next 10 seasons. Coming off a 33 home run and 103 RBI season, Martinez is the type of power bat that rounds out the middle of a lineup. With the Diamondbacks looking to add that type of right-handed bat to their lineup, the question becomes if it's the right time to strike a deal.
In his latest column, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the D-backs are "hopeful" to land Martinez with Justin Turner also potentially in play for the designated hitter role. The 36-year-old DH is the more appealing bat of the two, with elite batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, sweet spot, and xSLG all ranked in the 96th percentile or better according to Baseball Savant.
The first question for Arizona will come down to affordability. Jack Sommers estimates the D-backs current payroll to be around $128 million after the Eduardo Rodriguez signing. Martinez could command a contract that averages at least $12 million per season. That would push their payroll for the 2024 season over $140 million, and probably still looking for outfield help and a backup catcher. If they are budgeting a $150 million payroll for the 2024 season, then there should be room to add right-handed outfield depth and a backup catcher to the roster. If not, then the question becomes opportunity cost.
In terms of an on-field role, Martinez slots in as the DH and either hitting third or fourth in the lineup. However despite his elite batted ball mechanics, there is the concern of a 31% strikeout rate. Can Arizona afford to have two bats in their lineup, within relative proximity of each other, with a strikeout rate above 30%? When you have a deep lineup of guys with the ability to manufacture runs like the Dodgers, that's less of an issue. In Arizona's case, it becomes a bit more risky with the bottom third of their lineup a question mark.
There also comes the opportunity cost as well. General manager Mike Hazen said at the Winter Meetings that he'd be comfortable with an all left-handed outfield of Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, and Corbin Carroll. McCarthy and Thomas were both demoted to Triple-A during the 2023 season due to a lack of consistency with their bats. Beyond those three, their minor league depth includes prospects Dominic Fletcher and Jorge Barrosa, both of whom are better from the left side of the plate. Ideally they're able to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to give them coverage against lefties to complement that signing.
For the D-backs the net positives for adding J.D. Martinez to their lineup outweighs the risk. The main risk is Martinez's bat slows down and the batted ball metrics take a huge step backwards in his Age 36 season. However the upside is adding a right-handed bat that opposing teams have to respect.
