Exploring a Gabriel Moreno Extension for the Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have had a busy offseason, making several high profile signings and a trade, all increasing their payroll to over $145 million, a franchise record. With most of the heavy lifting out of the way, it's time to turn attention to the question of whether or not they plan to extend catcher Gabriel Moreno.
First let me get a disclaimer out of the way. I have no knowledge of any discussions the Diamondbacks may be having internally, or with Moreno's representation. The topic of whether the D-backs will or should try to extend him has come up frequently however, especially in lieu of the franchise record setting extension signed by Corbin Carroll last year during spring training.
Moreno is coming off his first full season in the majors in which he hit .284/.339/.408, 104 OPS+. He posted an astounding +20 defensive runs saved and led all of MLB with 3.1 Defensive WAR, leading to the National League Gold Glove award. Moreno had an especially strong second half batting .313 with a .894 OPS, smacking 15 extra base hits including five homers in 131 at bats. The power surge continued in the post season when he blasted four more homers. It was an epic first season for the 23-year-old. So what would an extension need to look like ?
The first thing we need to do is estimate what Moreno's earnings project to be if he's not extended. Moreno has one year and 61 days of MLB service time. As such he is still a pre arb player, and two years away from arbitration for 2026, and five years away from free agency in 2029. Barring any major injuries or under performance, Moreno stands to earn anywhere between $30-35 million prior to becoming a free agent in his Age 29 season. For the sake of this article I'm using the mid point of $32.5 million
| Year | Age | Status | Amount (millions) |
|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 24 | Pre Arb 2 | .75 |
2025 | 25 | Pre Arb 3 | .75 |
2026 | 26 | Arb 1 | 6 |
2027 | 26 | Arb 2 | 10 |
2028 | 28 | Arb 3 | 15 |
Total | 32.5 |
The Diamondbacks goal in any extension scenario would of course be to gain at least a couple of extra years of control without taking on too much risk. From Moreno's perspective, he will need to be compensated handsomely in exchange for giving up an earlier bite at the free agency apple. These considerations are complicated by the rigors of catching. Catchers age and decline quicker than all other players. There are always a few outliers of course, but in general production for catchers declines much faster after the age of 30.
For this reason, it may not make sense for the D-backs to attempt to do more than gain a couple of club option years for 2029 and 2030. There is a huge difference for Moreno between hitting free agency at Age 29 versus Age 31 however. So those two years of added control won't come cheaply. An extension might look something like the below table perhaps.
| Year | Salary + Bonus | Buyouts |
|---|---|---|
2024 | 2 + 2 = 4 | |
2025 | 4 | |
2026 | 6 | |
2027 | 12 | |
2028 | 12 | |
2029 | 16 | 3 |
2030 | 16 | 3 |
Total | 70 |
In the scenario above, with salary, a signing bonus, and the 2029 option buyout, Moreno would be guaranteed at least $45 million through 2028. That's about $12 million more than he would otherwise earn going through the arbitration process. In exchange the team would be gaining two club options at a team-friendly $16 million each.
This is all just an example of one type of deal the team may possibly seek out. It would seem unlikely the team would want to commit to any catcher beyond age 30 on a long term deal. Whether this is enough to get it done or too much, it's probably within $5 million total value in either direction of what it would take.
One thing is certain. If Moreno continues to build off what he did over the final three months of 2023 the cost to extend him will go up much higher than these estimates by the end of 2024. There probably is no time like the present to get a team-friendly deal done. Moreno may wish to bet on himself however and go through the arbitration process, setting himself up for a big payday as a relatively young free agent at the age of 29. At worst, file this under good problems to have for both sides.
