Handicapping the Diamondbacks Opening Day Roster
The Diamondbacks are enjoying the first of just two off-days in the Spring Training schedule today. The next one is March 21st. The regular season starts on March 28th and the team will presumably take until the last possible minute to make their final roster decisions.
What follows is a percentage rating for roster and non-roster players to make the Opening Day squad. Some players that almost certainly have zero chance to make the roster are not listed. These are admittedly subjective, but consider it an informed subjectivity. While it's impossible to predict exactly what the team will do, we have a pretty good idea of where they are leaning and what they're thinking. We talk to manager Torey Lovullo, and his coaching staff, every day and general manager Mike Hazen continually throughout the offseason and Spring Training.
The team will almost certainly begin the year with 13 pitchers and 13 position players. They will play seven games in seven days to open the season and have slow-played Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly this spring, delaying due to their 2023 workload. That means they're not likely to go deep into games their first couple of starts. Coupled with the schedule the team will need to enter the year with five starters and a full bullpen of eight relievers.
For a team that made it all the way to the World Series, there are a surprising number of camp battles and roster spots up for grabs this spring. We estimate that 19 players are 100% locks to make the roster, (9 pitchers and 10 position players) and seven roster spots are still not completely settled.
Pitching Staff
D-backs Pitching Staff Opening Day Roster Chances
Jack Sommers
The top four in the rotation are set with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt. There is a four-man competition for the 5th starter spot, with Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson clearly atop the depth chart. Lovullo said that it's more than a two-man competition though, and there is still an outside chance that Slade Cecconi or even Bryce Jarvis could win the spot. There is also the distinct possibility that the team will choose to go with a "long" reliever and place one of the three not chosen for the 5th starter spot on the roster to begin the year, while the other two head to Triple-A Reno.
There are five "locks" among the right-handed pitchers for relief roles, including Paul Sewald, Miguel Castro, Ryan Thompson, Scott McGough, and Kevin Ginkel. Among the lefties, we list Joe Mantiply as having a 90% chance, but not quite a lock. We have Kyle Nelson slightly ahead of Andrew Saalfrank, and Non Roster invitee Kyle Backhus as a long shot. We don't know yet if the team will go with two or three left-hand relievers. If the D-backs decide they only need two lefties in the pen and don't need a long man, then that increases the chances that Luis Frias, or even Justin Martinez makes the roster. Corbin Martin is listed as a long shot, as he has not pitched in a Spring Training game yet.
Position Players
D-backs Position Players Opening Day Roster Chances
Jack Sommers
The starting nine around the diamond is set. The only caveat there is Randall Grichuk, who is recovering from surgery to remove bone spurs in his heel, has not yet played in a spring training game. We are taking Torey Lovullo's word that he'll be ready for opening day. The backup catcher has boiled down to Tucker Barnhart and Jose Herrera. We believe based on comments from the team praising Barnhart repeatedly that he'll win the job out of camp. It makes sense, as Herrera has one option year remaining. Barnhart is on a minor league contract and not on the 40-man roster. So they can option Herrera, go with Barnhart, and not lose him. If it doesn't work out they can always make the switch a month or so into the season.
The remaining two spots are much more difficult to handicap. To begin with, we are not sure if the team will add two more infielders, or add an infielder and one outfielder. Both of the DH's, Joc Pederson and Grichuk can play outfield. But Grichuk may be limited to DH duties to start the year recovering from ankle surgery.
The thorniest roster questions revolve around Emmanuel Rivera, Jace Peterson, and Elvis Andrus, and how much the backup shortstop role impacts that. None of these three players can be optioned to the minor leagues. If Rivera were exposed to waivers he would almost certainly not clear and the team would lose a player that still has four years of control remaining. The team owes Peterson $3 million for 2024 and they love his clubhouse presence and leadership. He was impacted by a torn meniscus last September, having offseason surgery to repair it. He's looked better this spring.
The problem is neither Peterson nor Rivera are truly capable of manning the backup shortstop role for 20-30 starts per year. Andrus is the only true shortstop among these three. Signed just last week to a minor league deal, he will not appear in a game until next week and has only two weeks to get ready. If he shows out, the team will almost certainly add him to the roster as a true shortstop. That then leaves one of Rivera or Peterson on the outside looking in.
The team could conceivably go with just one of these infielders to start the year, thus losing the other two potentially, and put Jake McCarthy on the roster. The more likely scenario however is they McCarthy to Reno to Triple-A Reno start the year. Grichuk's ability to play the outfield early in the season could have a big impact on this decision. Minor leaguers Jordan Lawler, Blake Alexander, Pavin Smith, and non-roster invitee Kevin Newman are shown as having minimal, but non-zero chances of making the roster. Alexander in particular has been having an outstanding spring, batting .381 on 8-for-21 hitting and playing good defense at multiple positions.
40-Man Roster Bubble
One last important point is that the 40-man roster is full. Should the team add a non-roster player or two, such as Barnhart and/or Andrus, then they'll need to make a corresponding move to clear space. One possibility could come via trade of course. But if it doesn't, then players that are likely on the bubble and in danger of being cut from the 40-man include Peter Strzelecki, who we did not include among the relievers, or perhaps one of Pavin Smith, or the aforementioned Peterson or Rivera.
