Hoskins Deal Could Price D-backs Out of Top DH Options

Over the past month there hasn't been much noise on the designated hitter market. Last night provided some clarity on what that market could look like, as the Milwaukee Brewers signed free agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million deal. Hoskins is one of four right-handed bats that hit the market this season and landed a solid guarantee despite missing out on the entire 2023 season. At an average of $17 million dollar a year, the natural question to ask is if the Diamondbacks are simply priced out of the market for an impact bat.

The D-backs have made it clear throughout the offseason they are still searching for one more big bat to add to their lineup, and have also indicated they don't have a preference for handedness. So far they've been linked to J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, and Justin Turner as potential free agent targets, with all three yet to be signed. Last week Jack Sommers broke down each of the remaining players that could fill in as their primary designated hitter.

The table above has a composite projection between ZiPS and Steamer, along with a projected average annual value in the rightmost column. That is an average of the FanGraphs Median Crowd Source prediction and the prediction of the Top 50 Free Agents on MLB Trade Rumors. Hoskins' $17 million comes in a million higher than the average, which does not bode well for the D-backs if the same effect were to apply to the four remaining hitters. Arizona currently sits in at a projected 2024 payroll of $137 million, so in order to get that big bat to round out their lineup they will need to likely exceed $150 million. The cost to get Martinez or Soler could be $16-18 million on a multiyear deal, so the question is should they go all in on one guy or try to fill out their roster with multiple players for that level of money.

One additional option the D-backs could take with the designated hitter is target the most affordable player in Joc Pederson. Pederson is strictly a platoon bat, only to start against right-handed pitching, but improves their lineup for the 110 games. In terms of impact bats from the left side of the plate, Arizona only has Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte as players who will hit 15 or more home runs from that side of the plate. Then with the remaining payroll space they're willing to use the team should target a right-handed hitting outfielder to round out their roster.

Despite a down year in which he hit .235 with 15 home runs in San Francisco last season, the underlying metrics suggest a potential bounce-back in 2023. Going to Pederson's Baseball Savant page, he ranked in the 90th percentile in xwOBA (.366), the 96th percentile in hard-hit (95+ MPH exit velocity) rate (52.2%), 82nd percentile in xSLG (.481), and 91st percentile in walk rate (13.4%).