How much is it going to take to sign Xander Bogaerts?
Looking out the window of my hotel room this morning here at the Baseball Winter Meetings in San Diego, the realities of Xander Boegarts price tag shone as brightly as the sun.
The Diamondbacks have been linked and rumored to be a competitive suitor for this player's services via free agency. Last night Mike Hazen responded to that question without dispelling or confirming the rumor. He simply indicated they will do anything they can to improve the club. While doing so he offered a glimmer of hope by indicating the team is in the process of exploring areas to improve they hadn't previously considered. Based on previous discussions, that clearly includes shortstop. But it was by no means confirmation that the rumors are true.
Estimates
The burning question is what is it going to take ? One reputable website estimated between 6 years, $168 million to 7 years $210 million. Another estimated 7 years, $189 million. Those websites are wrong. The total contract values are simply too low. The first piece of evidence for that is the contract that Trea Turner just received from the Philadelphia Phillies. Those websites estimated Turner between a low 7 years, $210 million and 9 years, $288 million. Turner signed for 11 years, $300 million. His average annual of 27.3 million is a little lower but the key is the total guaranteed money.
Here is Turner, alongside two other comparable contracts, Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager.
Contract Comparisons
Jack Sommers
There are differences between these players of course. Lindor was signed to an extension by the Mets after being traded to them in 2021, with his extension kicking in in 2022. Both he and Seager were younger at the time of signing and their contracts will end at a younger age than Turners. But again, focus on the total contract value. It should also be noted that Seager blew away contract projections too. He was estimated to receive between 7 years, $196 million to 9 years, $240 million.
Based on the above, I estimate that Bogaerts will receive a total guarantee of at least $300 million, and perhaps more.
Performance Comps
Now lets take a look at Bogaerts side by side with these players to see if this opinion can be validated. One can do this any number of ways, such as total career value, or just the last two years. I'll give you both, using a simple format. Games played, OPS+, and WAR/650.*
WAR/650 is simply the baseball reference WAR prorated per 650 PA , or a full season. OPS+ is OPS relative to league average, and adjusted for ballpark environments. 100 is Average, and the number above 100 is roughly a percentage above average.
Career comps
Jack Sommers
Bogaerts started his career earlier than the other three and was a full time player in his second season. So there is a big difference in games played. While Bogaerts lags behind in this table's rate stats, that's a little misleading as his bat had not yet broken out during his youngest seasons.
Now lets take a look at the previous two seasons prior to signing for all of these players.
Last two year comps
Jack Sommers
In the case of Seager and Lindor, the previous two seasons included the Pandemic shortened 2020 season. In addition Seager was injured for a large part of 2021. So the total games played lag behind. But in Seager's case one can clearly see what the Rangers saw. On a rate basis he was tremendous, and they gambled on his health. Ironically he had the healthiest season of his career, playing 151 games, but his OPS+ fell to 119 and his WAR total was only 4.0.
Lindor had a down 2020 season despite playing in all 60 games, so that hurt his two year average. The Mets didn't worry about that though, and traded for him and gave him a huge 10-yr, $341 million extension. It looked like a mistake initially, as 2021 was the worst season of his career, but he bounced back last year to post 5.4 WAR.
Meanwhile the total and rate of the last two seasons between Bogaerts and Turner are almost exactly comparable, Turner just blew away the total contract values that had been predicted. There is little doubt that Bogaerts will do the same. It's going to take at least $300 million total value to sign him and the only questions is will it be for 10 or 11 years.
Can the Diamondbacks afford him?
As for the Diamondbacks, a $300 million guarantee might seem outside their financial capabilities, at least initially. However there are factors to consider that could change that view. I previously estimated that the team could potentially add between $10-$20 million payroll in 2023, bringing it up to approximately $120 million. But one club official indicated to me that the team could be "a little north of that figure" .
Even if the club is adding $25 million for example, that would still be too little to accommodate Bogaerts needs in 2023. Unless he is willing to accept a backloaded structure. But even a salary in the low 20's in 2023 does not get them there. They would need to save money elsewhere. After all they still have other needs to fill.
Asked last night if he would consider moving salary in order to make payroll space, Hazen was suitably vague.
"We're not really focused on that necessarily, but I suppose at some point we could require that. But we're not really focused on that right now. I don't know where that's going to take us. We have some maneuverability to be able to go out and do some things and we'll deal with that first."
One can interpret that any way they want, but I'd take it as we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. In other words if they do make a big signing, then they'll resolve the dollars.
One possibility would be to move at least part of Nick Ahmed's contract. He is due $10.4 million in 2023 and is coming off shoulder surgery that caused him to miss almost all of last season. It's doubtful the team could move him without absorbing at least half of that contract, and in the end the savings there might only end up being a few million. Much the same could be said for Madison Bumgarner's situation. Owed $37 million over the next two seasons, $23M in 2023, and $14M in 2024, the team would almost certainly have to eat all but a few million of that to move him.
Another option would be to make a bolder move and trade Ketel Marte. He was signed to a five-year, $76 million extension that kicks in next year for $11.6 million, and escalates to $16.6 million by 2025. While the return of players may not be what it once would have been due to Marte's numerous injuries and up and down seasons, the team would not have to absorb any of his contract should they decide to move him to make room in the payroll. This is really the boldest move the team could make, constituting a big pivot away from the mercurial second baseman.
Trading Marte, and perhaps even Ahmed at a discounted rate would certainly free up the necessary funds needed to fit Bogaerts into the payroll. Whether that's advisable is another question entirely. When I wrote about this last week I concluded Bogaerts was a poor fit. But Hazen made clear last night that's not necessarily a valid view:
"We are exploring every avenue to make the team better, and just because something may look on the surface that it's not a fit, doesn't mean we're not engaged in that market".
Watch this space.
