Looking at the Left Handed Starter Market for the Diamondbacks

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While reviewing projections the other day one of the areas I suggested the Diamondbacks focus is acquiring a left handed starting pitcher. The bullpen remains the top priority of course, but Mike Hazen indicated that he is going to look for more starting pitching as well. Despite having a number of very promising pitching prospects, Hazen clearly feels the need for more depth and stability in the rotation.

This makes sense. Young pitchers are very unpredictable and going with two or three rookie pitchers in your rotation can make for some tough stretches. In addition, the guy they were depending on to be that anchor to the rotation, left hander Madison Burmgarner, has not worked out, and is likely on a very short leash in 2023. If he doesn't turn it around, the team will be left without any reliable left handed starter in the rotation. Tommy Henry's 5.36 ERA, 5.88 FIP in 9 starts show he's not quite ready to step into that slot.

Accordingly, here are five left handed starters the team my consider kicking the tires on. Ages shown are 2023 baseball age. There are risks associated with all of them, not the least of which is age, but this is the state of the free agent market for left handed starters. Note that Carlos Rodon, who is certainly outside their budget parameters is not included.

Jose Quintana, Age 34

Quintana was one of the most reliable innings eaters in MLB, making 30+ starts for seven straight years from 2012-2019 for the White Sox and the Cubs. He missed almost all of 2020 however and had a down season in 2021. Signed to a make good deal with the Pirates for 2022, he did just that posting a 3.50 ERA in 20 starts. Traded to the Cardinals at the deadline, he was even better, posting a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts for St. Louis. He threw 5.1 scoreless innings in the Wild Card round against the Phillies allowing just two hits.

Quintana has never been a hard thrower, his fastball has averaged in the low 90's his entire career. But he's always had good command of his three pitch mix, (he throws a changeup and curveball) and has always been able to induce soft contact.

Estimates floating around the internet indicate he'll get between $12-$14 million per year on a two or three year deal. That's probably just outside the D-backs price range and there seem to be quite a number of teams interested, so getting a below market deal would be unlikely. But if the team is stretching the budget, this is a pitcher they should at least check in on.

Sean Manaea, Age 31

Manaea had six mostly productive seasons with the Oakland A's. He bounced back from a torn Labrum in 2019 to post a very solid 2021. With one year remaining before free agency he was traded to the San Diego Padres on April 2nd, just prior to the start of the 2022 season. While he began his season with seven no-hit innings against the D-backs on April 8th, he struggled with inconsistency. Looking at his game log He had 9 games with a pitching game score over 60, and 8 games with a game score under 30. By the time the post season rolled around he was not used in either the wild card or divisional series rounds. He got lit up in his lone outing in the NLCS, giving up 5 runs in 1.1 innings.

Still, there was likely some bad luck involved. Several advanced predictive metrics, such as xERA (4.05) from Baseball Savant, SIERA (3.90) and xFIP (3.96) from Fangraphs, all indicate that the quality of contact he gave up should have resulted in an ERA about a run lower than it was. These numbers are consistent with his career averages. His velocity and horizontal movement showed little change, but he did have a drop in vertical movement.

I've seen estimates for Manaea contract between two years, $24 million to four years $52 million. At 2/24 he's comparable to Quintana, but at 4/52 this would be a hard pass.

Andrew Heaney, Age 32

If you like guys with a lot of upside but who carry a lot of risk, the oft injured Heaney is your guy. He always had excellent strikeout rates and good walk rates while pitching for the Angels, but always had issues with the long ball. His career 18% home runs per fly ball have resulted in a 1.6/9 career home run rate. Last year the Dodgers had him focus on just using his Fastball/Slider, and ditching everything else. His strikeout rate exploded, but the gopher ball problem remained. It should be noted that he gave up nine unearned runs in just half a season's work. The 3.10 ERA is a little deceiving. On the other hand his xERA was just 3.39.

MLB Trade Rumors estimates he'll get three years, $42 million. It's hard to believe a team would sink that much cash into him. But about half that amount in guaranteed money could be worth a shot.

Wade Miley Age 36

Former Diamondback Wade Miley has been around the block more than a few times. However when he's been able to post up over the last five years he's been very effective, posting a 3.50 ERA over his last 92 games, 462 innings pitching for four different teams.

Last year he signed a one year, $10 million dollar deal with the Cubs. He pitched in 3 games in May and one in June before being shut down for three months with a subscapularis strain in his left shoulder. His rehab process went slowly, but he finally made it back for five games in September, posting a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings.

Miley is all about the cutter (85 MPH) and changeup these days. He'll throw a few four seamers (89 MPH) and an occasional slider or curveball.

A one year deal at $6 million for Miley could possibly make sense. If you can get 160+ innings with sub four ERA out of him like the Astros did in 2019 and the Reds did in 2021 he'd be a steal.

Drew Smyly Age 34

Having pitched for seven different teams in his career, Smyly is the quintessential journeyman lefty. Quite effective early in his career, Smyly lost two full seasons to an elbow injury eventually requiring Tommy John surgery in 2017. Pitching for four different teams between 2019-2021 he posted a 5.12 ERA in 61 games, 297 innings. He signed with the Cubs last year on a one year deal for only $4.3 million with a $10 million mutual option. He went on to have his best season since 2015, posting a 3.47 ERA in 22 games. He declined his end of the mutual option to re enter the free agent market.

Clearly he hopes and expects to get a multi year deal guaranteeing him more than the $10 million he turned down. Smyly is a case where he is throwing harder post TJ surgery than before. His fastball averaged 92.6 last year. He also throws a curve and cutter.

His xERA was 4.17 and his xFIP was 4.18. So I would not put too much trust in the 3.47 ERA. Smyly is a guy you can probably get 130 inning out of maximum with an ERA between 4.00-4.50. It will be interesting to see if any team gives him more than his option would have paid him. That team shouldn't be the D-backs however.

SUMMARY

Pitching is expensive to acquire. If the D-backs want to bolster their rotation and options such as these are not palatable, either from a financial or projected performance perspective then they will have to turn to the trade market. In order to get a pitcher at least as good as the guys on this list, they will pay a hefty price in player and/or prospect capital as well.