Can Gurriel Give D-backs Much Needed Right-Handed Punch?
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The Diamondbacks made a blockbuster move last week when they traded Daulton Varsho to the Toronto Blue Jays for catcher prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The D-backs are hoping that Gurriel, 29, can give them some right-handed impact in the middle of their lineup.
Right-handed batters in Arizona struggled against left-handed pitching for the D-backs. Fangraphs ranked their collective contribution against southpaws nine percent lower than the average hitter with a 91 wRC+, despite solid production from both Christian Walker (132) and Ketel Marte (125). That ranked the fifth worst amongst the 30 major league clubs, and prompted their wide search to add a right-handed bat this off-season.
Gurriel hasn't been particularly strong against left-handed pitchers the past two seasons. In fact he did not hit any homeruns off a lefty last year. Fangraphs has rated him as slightly below the average against southpaws the last two years, with a wRC+ of 95 and 93 in 2021 and 2022. That would only be a moderate improvement over what Jordan Luplow provided Arizona (78), despite leading the team with eight home runs against lefties. Much of Gurriel's decline against left-handed pitchers can be traced to a drop in isolated slugging (ISO), from .222 in 2020 to .172 in 2021 and .089 in 2022. Accompanying that trend is a dramatic increase in ground ball rate, which were 48.2% and 52.1% the past two seasons.
The drop in his overall power numbers is a trend the D-backs will hope to reverse. He entered the 2022 season with a career 4.6% home run rate, but after only hitting just five in just 493 PA (1.0%), it dropped a near full percentage point to 3.7%. His ability to make hard contact hasn't been diminished, as his hard-hit rate (exit velocities greater than 95 MPH) of 45.7% and average exit velocity of 90.6 MPH rank in the 79th and 80th percentile amongst big league hitters. The key will be getting those hard-hit balls in play at the optimal launch angles. Gurriel’s barrel rate of 3.8% ranked in the 12th percentile and was a stark drop from his 9.8% mark from the previous season.
After the Blue Jays were eliminated from the postseason, Gurriel underwent wrist surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left wrist. The Blue Jays didn't believe the power drop is in relation to the wrist, according to an October article from Shi Davidi of Sports Net. His home run rate in 2022 through July 1st, the date of his last home run, was 1.8%. Gurriel missed a game on September 2nd with a wrist issue, but played another five games before before a hamstring strain ended his regular season. He played in both games in the Wild Card round against Seattle, going 2-for-8 with a double.
So if the power drop isn't related to his wrist, that's a big concern for the D-backs when trying to fill out their lineup. If you extrapolate his career home run rate of 3.7% to 500 PA, that's 18 home runs. Getting to 500 plate appearances could be a challenge, as Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo have to try to balance out playing time in the outfield. Despite Gurriel's past history as a middle infielder, he has not played much on the dirt since the 2019 season. Save for a handful of starts at first base, his other starts at a position will mostly likely be in left field.
Both the D-backs and Gurriel are hoping for the power numbers to bounce back to 2018-2021 levels. There is some solid foundation to work with between the average exit velocity and hard-hit numbers. Should that translate to a better barrel rate and extra base hit production in 2023, Gurriel provides Arizona a much-needed bat against left-handed pitchers.
