Should Alek Thomas Be Worried?
The Diamondbacks front office sent a message to the clubhouse last week, that they'll need to perform in order to keep their job. That message was made loud and clear when they sent Jake McCarthy being sent down to Triple-A Reno on Tuesday. Another young outfielder could find himself on the hot seat, with Alek Thomas' slow start potentially playing a factor.
Thomas enters play today hitting .176/.262/.324 with two home runs on the season and -2 defensive runs saved in his first 25 games. Baseball Reference equates his total contribution to be -0.4 wins above replacement. On first glance it would appear that Thomas isn't performing well, but we need to take a look at the underlying factors behind his performance. Is it a case of legitimately poor performance, or is it a case of where the results aren't matching the process.
Breaking down his performance, we start with the fundamentals. Is Thomas swinging at strikes and taking pitches out of the zone? His 20.2% strikeout and 9.5% walk rates are both better than the MLB average for each stat, which suggests he is better than the average hitter at discerning balls and strikes. Digging in deeper, we look to see if Thomas is chasing pitches out of the zone. His chase rate of 26.6% ranks in the 55th percentile. So we can conclude that Thomas does a better job of identifying strikes and balls than the average hitter.
The next section of his performance to dissect is if he's crushing the pitches he's supposed to. Batting consistently in the bottom third of the lineup, Thomas is getting the highest percentage on the team of pitches in the heart of the zone at 30.6%. Those pitches typically the best for big league hitters to feast on, hitting .360 with a .643 slugging percentage on those pitches. On pitches in the heart of the plate, Thomas is hitting .290 and slugging .419.
Therein lies the problem, as to why he has not performed well at the plate this season. Going beyond the batted ball results, Thomas' 94.8 MPH exit velocity is 2 MPH faster than the league average, but the 7.0 degree launch angle is well below the league average of 14.4. That points to an issue of an inability to lift the ball, not being able to fully utilize his otherwise excellent bat-to-ball skills that got him in the big leagues.
With the main issue identified, the next logical question is to ask why it's happening. Esteban Rivera of Fangraphs wrote a piece about hitters simplifying their loads. He identified Thomas as a hitter who could potential reap the results of simplifying his load. When loading up his swing, Thomas uses a big and slow leg kick before taking a steep bat path into the strike zone. As Rivera notes, that can occasionally lead to him not being on time with center-cut fastballs or breaking balls, causing him to roll over and hit a hard ground ball to second base.
While he can continue to be more selective at the plate, the key to turning things around offensively is doing more damage on hittable strikes. That means he'll need to do more damage on the hittable strikes over the heart of the plate. Batting at the bottom third of the order, he'll get plenty of pitches to hit.
The D-backs have already shown more urgency in their roster decisions, as evidenced by the McCarthy send down. Coupled with the fact that Dominic Fletcher is hitting .373/.471/.644 with nine extra base hits and two home runs since April 11th, there is some added pressure coming from the minor leagues. The question will be how much patience the team will have for Thomas if he continues to struggle.
