Three Diamondbacks Hitters Who Could Outperform Projections
With a multitude of Diamondbacks player projections to look over and an argument both for and against these players' ability to hit above their expectations, there are a few batters who stand out as having a much higher potential ceiling than what their projected hitting numbers may say.
Some of it is situational, with players unable to see plate appearances in their realm of comfort, whereas some projections simply look at a regression to the mean or a regression due to age.
Here are three D-backs hitters who have the potential to overcome their expectations and produce at a more consistent rate at the plate in 2024.
3B Eugenio Suárez
Projection: .229/.320/.406, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 10.5% BB, 29.5% K, 98 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
Suárez has had an interesting track record over the last few seasons. He hasn't hit for a very high average since 2019, and his strikeout rate is astronomically high. But that doesn't tell the full story of Geno as a hitter.
In 2021 and 2022, the power-hitter only reached a .198 and .236 average respectively. But he slugged well above .400 in both years, despite dismal batting averages and low OBPs. His ISO (isolated power) was over .220 in both years, despite not hitting for much contact or consistency.
Yes, he strikes out a lot, as he has for most of his career. But the raw power and ability to square up baseballs and hit aggressively has been the selling point of his career as a hitter.
The Diamondbacks require timely hitting, a role which Suárez can fill. Even in a year where he barely hit .230 with Seattle in 2023, the right-handed slugger hit .339 in high-leverage situations, and .277 with runners in scoring position.
If no one's on base, Suárez struggles, but to be able to be an anchor of clutch in the middle of the D-backs order could do wonders for his consistency.
T-Mobile Park in Seattle, according to Statcast, is the hardest stadium to hit in across the MLB stadiums. If one were to go back and watch Suárez hit in even a handful of Mariners home games--as I have done recently--one would notice an astounding number of extremely hard-hit fly balls, many of which died mere feet from the wall, some even being home runs that were robbed by the outfielder.
Chase Field runs middle-of-the-pack as far as park factor is concerned but is an immediate 17-spot upgrade over T-Mobile. Suárez, coming to a team that doesn't struggle to put runners on ahead of him as much as the Mariners did, hitting in a more hitter-friendly environment, has a legitimate chance at bringing his raw power to life.
Even in recent down years, his underlying Statcast metrics show a solid amount of red, and even though he strikes out a lot, he rarely chases outside the zone. He might be a strikeout machine, but it's not for lack of quality swings.
While it could simply be that age is catching up to the veteran infielder, and his projections are quite harsh from all sources, a change of environment to a situation where he'd be a more comfortable and consistent hitter could do wonders for his season numbers, and the D-backs' lack of consistent power hitting.
SS Geraldo Perdomo
Projection: .241/.338/.348, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 11.6% BB, 18.6% K, 91 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
The young shortstop has not been close to a consistent hitter with the D-backs in his short career, but he has shown the ability to hit extremely well when on a hot streak.
As manager Torey Lovullo has named him the everyday shortstop, the switch-hitter has also been working on his right-handed swing. Perdomo has shown notable improvement in his time with the D-backs and is a coachable young guy with excellent plate discipline and vision.
Where Perdomo struggled was in a tendency to stare down strike three, and while he isn't the most powerful hitter, his ability to string together hits set the table for the top of the order, and bring guys home from the nine-hole was generally an underrated aspect of Arizona's lineup.
Where he faltered the most was as a right-handed hitter. He had a 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitching as a lefty bat (5% above average) but only 62 wRC+ as a right-handed bat. Lovullo noted his need to work on the righty swing, but even a slight evening out of the two sides would see a major improvement in his overall numbers.
He also hit .313 with runners in scoring position, being one of the D-backs most clutch bats for a portion of the season. A cold streak in May and September deflated his season numbers a bit, but he rose to the occasion in the playoffs, slashing .298/.389/.426/.815 through October and is one of the key rally-starters in multiple playoff series, including the famous four-homer inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Perdomo is still only 24 years old and has been steadily improving with each year. His projected regression is one he can easily hit above with just a dash of added consistency and a little more power, since his plate discipline, ability to not chase and defense are all bordering on elite already.
OF/DH Randal Grichuk
Projection: .243/.292/.400, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 5.7% BB, 22.9% K, 87 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
Grichuk's projected numbers are a bit of a shock. While his numbers weren't stellar, they still looked solid in 2023, and despite his slump when he was traded to the Los Angeles Angels, he still hit .267 and slugged .459.
That being said, as I've mentioned before in his projection analysis, these projection numbers do not account for his usage. Grichuk is a lefty-killing machine, hitting .328 against left-handed pitchers in 2023, and slugging .459.
Although he can provide some outfield depth, the idea is that he will help complete the other half of a platoon DH with left-handed hitter Joc Pederson. Therefore, the D-backs will protect him from righties as much as possible.
Since 70% of his career plate appearances have been against right-handers, and he's never platooned before in his career, Grichuk has a chance to finally face a majority of southpaws, and if his stellar career track record against them is any indication of what he can do, he'll have the opportunity to completely obliterate the very modest batting average and OBP that he's projected.
A .400 slug, coupled with a shocking eight-home run projection could also be quite low, considering he has 20-30 home run potential, and is a power-hitter with a history of hitting for well over .200 ISO (isolated power).
Grichuk seems like the biggest lock to outperform since his projections don't account for his ability and subsequent opportunity with Arizona in 2024.
Summary
While the projections shown generally will regress to the mean, each of these D-backs hitters has either shown the potential to improve beyond their numbers or is finally getting a chance to hit in as close to a perfect scenario as possible. Anything can happen over 162 games, but these guys have legitimate potential to be a much bigger force at the plate than one might expect.
