Two Starters the D-backs Should Convert to Relievers
The Diamondbacks find themselves with a good problem, a lot of major league ready starting pitching prospects, but not enough rotation spots. The team has had a wave of pitching prospects debut over the last two seasons, with plenty more coming up the farm system over the next two. So in order to get these pitchers to help contribute to the team, some of them will need to be converted to relievers.
These two pitchers come to mind as to who they should commit to the process of shortening up for in 2024.
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is one of two pitchers expected to compete for the fifth starter role, but faces an uphill battle to win it. That leaves the D-backs with two potential options: option him to Triple-A Reno and keep him stretched out or put him in the bullpen. The latter is a much better move for Nelson, who is very much a two-pitch pitcher at the current stage of his career and has concerns about sustaining his best stuff in outings.
As a reliever, he can simplify his repertoire to be primarily a two-pitch pitcher. He features a fastball that starts 95-98 MPH and a wipeout slider. The fastball can play better than its measured velocity due to a nearly vertical shape and above-average extension. The slider served as a useful out pitch, as opponents hit just .192 with a .257 wOBA in 2023. He had an inconsistent feel for the pitch for much of the season, which exposed his fastball and the lack of a third quality pitch.
With the D-backs carrying two young starters in their Opening Day rotation, it could make sense to carry Nelson as a long reliever before shortening him up. His stuff is better suited for short relief, seeing lineups only once. First time through the order, Nelson had a 17.7% strikeout rate vs. a 7.0% walk rate as a starter, but the strikeout rate jumped to 25% as a reliever. Ultimately the type of role that best suits him is the bridge between starter and backend of the bullpen, where his ability get you up to 12 outs could be valuable.
Bryce Jarvis
The D-backs have already explored this option with Jarvis in 2023, with some decent success at the major league level. His ability to quickly recover from outings and excellent makeup makes him a future candidate to pitch in the back of the bullpen. The only issue that plagues him as a starter is a 4-seam fastball that plays well below its 93-97 MPH velocity. The pitch has natural sinking movement and has one of the lowest spin rates in baseball.
With a fastball that gets hit harder than it should, Jarvis is a 2.5-pitch pitcher. Unless he can improve the quality of his fastball, he's the type of pitcher who will get severely penalized multiple times through the order. As a reliever, he can throw enough of his quality secondary pitches to keep hitters off the fastball. Without finding a way to make his fastball more playable at the major league level, it's unlikely he sticks as a starter.
Like Nelson, Jarvis is already 26 and possibly buried on the starting pitching depth chart, it makes more sense to get him up to the major leagues as a reliever. Otherwise they risk wasting too many bullets in Triple-A Reno trying to keep him stretched out instead of finding a role for them at the big league level.
