What are the Diamondbacks Updated Playoff Odds?

When we last checked in on the Diamondbacks playoff odds they had a composite 62% chance to make the playoffs. Since that date they've gone 7-7 in their last 14 games. Despite just treading water over this time period, their playoff odds have gone up eight percentage points to 70%

Almost all of the increase is in their odds to take the NL West Division, while the Wild Card odds have stayed mostly flat over the last month. On June 19th the Dodgers were 4.5 games back of the D-backs in third place. Since then they've gone 8-5 and are now 2.5 games back. The Giants were 3.5 games back on June 19th, but have gone 7-8 since that date to drop to 4.0 games back.

Below is a line chart that shows how the playoff odds have moved since we first started tracking this on May 7th

Here is the same information in table format

It should be noted that while 70% is better than a coin flip, it's still pretty far off from a high probability to make the playoffs. A .500 record the rest of the way would give Arizona a total of 88 wins. Last year the Phillies were the lowest ranked Wild Card team in the NL with 87 wins, and the Brewers missed the playoffs with 86 wins. The year prior with only two Wild Card teams, the Braves needed 88 wins to get into the tournament as the lower ranked wild card team.

So going .500 the rest of the way would probably keep the Diamondbacks pretty close to the cut line. If they can manage to get to 90 wins, which would require going 40-36 the rest of the way, then their chances would be quite high.

The D-backs will need continued good health from Corbin Carroll, who recently had a scare with a sore shoulder, but bounced back to hit an opposite field homer in yesterday's loss to the Mets. Merrill Kelly is on the IL with a blood clot in his calf, but it's hoped that he is on track for a return shortly after the all star break. The D-backs can ill afford a long term injury to their co-ace. Fortunately for Arizona, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry have pitched well in their recent starts to fill the gap.

With the August 1st trade deadline approaching General Manager Mike Hazen has stated repeatedly that he intends to be a buyer and is looking for pitching, both starting and relieving as well as a bat. We took a look at the market a few days ago, and while there are a number of certain sellers already, it's still a thin buyers market at the moment. That could change quickly though. So keep your eyes on the standings pages

In the meantime, Torey Lovullo continues to keep his players focused on one game at a time, using preparation, coaching, and communication to keep the team moving forward.

NOTES:

The reason we present the average of four different websites is so we can balance out the inherent bias existing in each sites methodology. Below is a brief summary of each system and how they work.

Baseball Reference playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.

Fangraphs takes their rest of season depth chart projections, which are the average of ZiPS and Steamer projections, and generates 20,000 simulations and adds that result to the team's current record.

Baseball Prospectus uses their Pecota projections to run Monte Carlo simulations for the rest of season and adds that to current record.

Five Thirty Eight uses "Elo ratings" which are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. They also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game