What Do Diamondbacks Spring Hitting Stats Mean?
What can we learn from the Diamondbacks spring training htting statistics ? First and foremost, it's very much established that spring training statistics are generally non predictive. Not only are they produced within a very small sample size, but the conditions in which they are produced are very different from the regular season.
That's not to say that spring performance doesn't matter. Clearly it does in some instances. Team's are evaluating overall health, and specific changes and improvements the players are working on. They look at many underlying factors to determine how a player is adapting. What is the quality of their approach at the plate? Are they picking up the ball and swinging at strikes? How hard are they impacting the baseball (Statcast). Some of that may show up in traditional batting stats, some may not, especially in such small samples. Remember the below numbers equate to basically two weeks worth of the games, which if they happened in the middle of the season wouldn't cause people to reevaluate a player.
As a team, the Diamondbacks hit .268/.340/.428, .768 OPS, with 27 HR in 993 at bats. The OPS ranked 12th in MLB. (Through Saturday March 25th). However that includes all of the minor league and non roster players that appeared in games. Below is a table with the primary 16 players expected to receive the bulk of the playing time. As you can see the bottom line of .286/.370.467, .837 OPS is significantly better. After the table see a brief comment on each player. Stats do not include final spring training game against the Brewers.
Kyle Lewis: Nobody took more advantage of his opportunity this spring than Lewis. He's hit the ball with authority and power from the first games he played.
Gabriel Moreno: Has hit the ball hard all spring and smacked three homers, allaying concerns some may have had of whether he is more than just a singles hitter. Showed excellent approach. Tough to strikeout.
Corbin Carroll: He filled up the box score in almost every way imaginable. Doubles, triples, stolen bases, and walks were plentiful. Perhaps most importantly, he struck out just six times. If that's a sign he'll get his K% down to 20% or better he'll be a monster. He didn't homer however.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: Started off camp exceptionally well, tailed off a little later on. But has good exit velocities. The hamate bone appears fully healed.
Carson Kelly: He was having a good spring before fracturing his ulna on a hit by pitch. It's very unfortunate. Don't expect a return before May 15th at the absolute earliest, and it could be significantly longer.
Nick Ahmed: Most important, he looks healthy.
Geraldo Perdomo: His swing has looked much better and more impactful all spring. He had a homer wiped off the board due a pitcher violation of the pitch clock. More walks than strikeouts.
Josh Rojas: Getting on base and running well, but for those hoping for more power, that may not be coming.
Pavin Smith: He started off well, but had a back injury disrupt his spring for a week. May have been slugged off the roster by Kyle Lewis.
Evan Longoria: Started spring poorly going 0-8 with six strikeouts. but has quietly started to get his timing down. He's been 5-14 with two doubles, a homer and just one more strikeout since.
Alek Thomas: When he impacts the baseball he often slashes it to opposite field. Keep an eye on the strikeouts however. He needs to make more contact, and more solid contact to utilize his speed. There is a reason he was sent down last year.
Christian Walker: Had been homer less in spring until very recently. While not a major concern, it's reasonable to expect him to fall off last year's career year homer total of 36.
Ketel Marte: He came into camp trimmed down and less bulky in the lower half with greater flexibility. He's looked better on defense, but that has not yet translated to good results in Cactus League or WBC games.
Emmanuel Rivera: While not expected to be on the opening day roster, with Longoria's (and Rojas') injury history he is likely to get his chances. Rivera hit well in the WBC but had a rough camp at the plate with the D-backs.
Jake McCarthy: Perhaps the most concerning player on the roster at the moment. The best player on the team in the second half last year started spring very slowly, then missed over a week with illness. He does not have an extra base hit this spring.
Jose Herrera: He was dismal at the plate last year in four months of backup to Carson Kelly and Daulton Varsho. Going 1-29 this spring is not reassuring.
