What Should We Expect From the Corbin Carroll Extension?

There have already been a lot of words spoken and written about the eight year, $111 million extension the Diamondbacks and Corbin Carroll agreed to. With just 32 games and 115 major league plate appearances under his belt it's an aggressive move for the Diamondbacks. Is it an overpay? Is it a steal? Just how much risk is there? Everybody has an opinion.

Here is mine.

If Carroll gets better at hitting lefties, keeps the strikeouts under control, and does not have an injury prone career despite his stature, then he'll blow away the dollar value of this contract. His speed, defense and athleticism already give him a two WAR floor. Add in his power and on base ability and he should repeatedly post 4+ WAR seasons throughout the deal. ZiPS projections tab him for 4.2, 4.6, and 4.9 WAR over the next three seasons alone. Tuck in a peak 6-7 WAR season somewhere over the next eight years and this deal is a runaway winner for the team.

But if he struggles against lefties, doesn't improve his strikeout rates, (23.6% in MiLB, 27% in MLB) and/or has a lot of injuries, then his ceiling is lowered to perhaps a 2+ WAR player at worst. But even in that worst case scenario he probably reaches 15-18 WAR during the course of the 8 year deal. The last couple years might hurt a little, but wouldn't be a disaster.

The fact that he already suffered a major shoulder injury swinging a bat makes the injury scenario somewhat more than the proverbial "nonzero chance". Furthermore he only had a .777 OPS vs. lefties in MiLB last year despite playing in Amarillo and Reno, (i.e. orbit) and then followed that up by going 5-for-28 with seven strikeouts vs. MLB left-handed pitching.

None of that means he can't hit lefties at this level, just that he hasn't proven he can yet. With young left-handed bats I always play the waiting game, because you just never know. It takes at least 500 PA against left hand pitching to start to get a good handle on just how well a left hand batter handles the same side platoon. That takes three seasons to find out. The good news on this front is he will definitely get every opportunity to learn to hit lefties. There will be no self-fulfilling prophecy here due to premature platooning.

Beyond that, if one has any belief at all that a player's work ethic, focus, and character can help him achieve the upper limits of his potential, then Carroll is your guy. He's a pretty special person. One need only listen to Mike Hazen and Carroll himself speak to know that. There's risk here, but I believe the risk/reward calculus is in the Diamondbacks favor. He's got a high floor, and everything it takes to achieve his ceiling. He basically just needs good health.

At the end of the day, Corbin Carroll is a fun, exciting player to watch play baseball. He and the team made a commitment to each other, and fans of the Diamondbacks should enjoy this player for years to come.