What the D-backs Must Do to Beat the Phillies in the NLCS

The Diamondbacks have played well so far this postseason, sweeping their way into the National League Championship Series. They'll face a battle-tested team in the Philadelphia Phillies, who are 5-1 this postseason and coming off a National League pennant last year. On paper this series favors Philadelphia, who holds home field advantage, but the D-backs have already won two postseason series they weren't necessarily favored in.

For the D-backs to win the NLCS and advance to the World Series, these are the five areas they will need to win at in order to take down the defending National league champions.

Establish Early Leads, Quiet the Philadelphia Crowd

The D-backs will need to set the tone early in this series with their bats. While they don't necessarily need to score six runs in the first inning of the series like they did to the Dodgers, it will be important for them to get an early lead and quiet the Philadelphia crowd. As Paul Sewald said, it is a tough environment to play uphill against with the crowd and the bullpen they'll face. That means they need to take advantage of their early scoring opportunities against the Phillies starting rotation.

Contain Bryce Harper

Harper is the heart and soul of that Philadelphia team, and has an established track record of being a postseason performer. In 42 career postseason games, he is slashing .285/.384/.633 with 14 home runs. Batting in the third spot in the order, when he goes off he can carry a team and get the crowd revved up. That rang true in their National League Division Series win over the Braves, where Harper was 6-for-13 with three home runs and five walks. The key for the D-backs to contain Harper at the plate is to get the guys in front and behind him in the lineup out. That means getting Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott out by all means necessary. If they can limit the opportunities for Harper to do damage, it will give them a better chance of staving off the big inning.

Corbin Carroll Must Have a Big Series

If Harper is the heart and soul of the Phillies, then Corbin Carroll is the same for the D-backs. Carroll has reached base 13 times in his first five postseason games, a trend that will need to continue for the D-backs to be able to put up the big inning against Philadelphia. If the D-backs star rookie can be a constant presence on the bases, that opens up opportunities for Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham, and Christian Walker to make an impact on the scoreboard.

Win the Majority of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly's Starts

Gallen and Kelly will start the first two games of the NLCS and will need to perform to give this team a chance. They will need to at worst split the first two games in Philadelphia to give themselves the best chance to win. In that case, Gallen would be in line to start Game 5 and Kelly for Game 6. If the series goes that deep, the D-backs need to win more games than they lose as they will likely be matched up against Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Control the Basepaths on Both Sides of the Ball

Both the D-backs and Phillies are capable of using the stolen base as an offensive weapon this postseason. It comes as no surprise for the former, who were second in MLB with 166 steals in the regular season, but the latter ran crazy over the Braves in their series win. Philadelphia leads the postseason with nine stolen bases while Arizona is second with seven. With both teams aware of how impactful this area of the game can be, it will be a war for every 90 feet. On the D-backs side, Moreno lead the National League in caught stealing rate at 39% (22/57) and all MLB catchers in Statcast's Caught Stealing Above Average at +9. On the flip side, J.T. Realmuto is no slouch in this area, although his caught stealing rate of 22% is much closer to league average.

If the D-backs can win in these five areas, they have a great shot of knocking out the Phillies and advancing to their first World Series appearance since the 2001 season.