Why the D-backs Should Go All In for David Bednar
It's no secret that the Diamondbacks have been one of the worst teams in baseball at converting 9th inning save opportunities. This is an issue that has plagued the team ever since Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo took over as General Manager and Manager respectively in 2017, (and even prior to that). In fact their bullpens have consistently been among the worst in MLB over the years in this critical area of team success.
Quantifying the Problem
While close observers of the team are well aware of the problem, it's important to quantify just how big a shortfall in this area we are talking about. It's not hyperbole. We can look at this two ways. One is simply by looking at 9th inning save percentages, which is different than the save percentage you might see at Baseball Reference for example. (Those include save situations that occur prior to the 9th inning). We can also look at the 9th inning save situation ERA.
If the D-backs are not the worst, they are second or third worst at converting 9th inning saves. It's a matter of fact, not conjecture, and has been the case for almost the entirety of this era of Diamondbacks baseball. Save percentage is not the only way to look at this however. Another is to look at 9th inning high leverage situations overall, which would also encompass ties games or games within just one run, and include metrics such as FIP and xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), lest anyone be tempted to try to shift the blame to defensive failures.
- FanGraphs determines high leverage differently than Baseball Reference, resulting in a tighter range. FG classifies 10% of all MLB PA as high leverage, while BR calculates 19%
- High leverage ERA is higher league wide to begin with, due to runners that are on base and other factors. MLB average and ranks shown to provide context.
- Only the 9th inning is being used, not extra innings, due to the distorting nature of the "Ghost" runner in extra innings on statistics.
The three pitchers that have accounted for 71 out of the team's 75 batters faced in 9th inning high leverage situations are the three free agents who signed this past off season, Andrew Chafin, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro. The team has tried all three in those situations, sometimes giving one of them an extended look in the 9th, other times on a rotational basis depending on both matchups and availability. All Three have performed poorly on the whole. Here they are compared to David Bednar, the trade target of this article.
FanGraphs
Why David Bednar?
Simply put Bednar is ascendant and at 28 years old one the best closers in the game. The Pirates have let it be known that they are listening on him, and the Diamondbacks should not just be doing due diligence here. They should be actively engaged in serious discussions
Bednar is not going to be a free agent until 2027, meaning any team that trades for him at this year's deadline will have him for almost 3.5 years. That lines up perfectly with the D-backs contention window that they have entered with a young ball club.
After struggling to establish himself his first couple of seasons in 2019 and 2020 he emerged as a dominant set up man in 2021 posting a 2.23 ERA backed by a 2.69 FIP. In 2022 he posted a 2.61 ERA and 2.43 FIP while registering 19 saves and blowing four, and also converting four holds. In 2023 he's taken it to another level, posting a 1.15 ERA, 1.98 FIP, and already matching last year's save total of 19 while blowing just one. Bednar has improved his walk rate to a very low 5.8%, compared to 8.0% he had coming into this season. (MLB average relievers have a 9.6% walk rate)
Bednar throws a four seam fastball that averages 96.4 MPH, with tremendous movement, both vertical and horizontal. He also throws a curveball and a splitter, the curve being the much better of the two secondaries. To get an idea of just how good he is across the board one only need to take a quick glance at his Statcast Page. The sea of red and 90+ percentile rankings illustrates perfectly just how dominant he's become. He has entered his peak and if he remains healthy should be able to stay there at least a couple of years.
There is always a risk with any reliever. They are difficult to evaluate because of the small sample sizes you're always dealing with. Reliever volatility is a real issue for teams to deal with. It's easy to say go out and trade for or sign a top notch reliever. All too often however we've seen that blow up in team's faces, not just the Diamondbacks.
That said, as risky as it might be to come up with the high profile prospect package that the Pirates may be looking for, the D-backs have to try. Bednar is the only reliever out there that is obtainable, controllable long enough, fiscally affordable, and actually great enough to move the needle towards pennant contention and get to the World Series.
I'm not going to speculate on which players in the D-backs minor league system or off the major league roster the Pirates would insist on getting for Bednar. But when the D-backs begin to weigh the costs of such a trade, they would be wise to factor heavily the cost associated with squandering a contention window. Because that is what they are doing if they don't make such a move in the immediate future.
