Will the Young Diamondbacks Run Wild in 2023?
During this past off season and spring training MLB instituted new rules to go along with the pitch timer. In order to keep the pitchers from gaming the system by continually stepping off to stop the clock, they are limited to maximum two free pickoff attempts, or step offs, per at bat. If on the third attempt the runner is not caught, he is automatically awarded the next base.
At the same time, primarily for safety concerns and to reduce collisions around the bases, MLB has increased the size of the bags, in effect shortening the distance between the bases by a couple of inches.
While it's impossible to know exactly how this will play out at the Major League level, from the data available it seems stolen base attempts and successful steals will be up considerably in 2023. Last year in Triple-A stolen base attempts were up 26% compared to 2019. (2.81 vs 2.23). Perhaps more importantly, the success rate jumped from 68% to 78%.
Most projection websites have had a difficult time incorporating these changes into their projections. But one website had no such qualms in taking the leap to factor in a large potential jump. Clay Davenport, a highly respected member of the baseball analytic community publishes the Davenport Projections each year. (Please consider to visit his page). Here is what he wrote at the time of initial release of this year's projections:
"Trying to figure out how the reduced shifting and the new pickoff attempt rules will affect the statistics was definitely an exercise. A lot of it, admittedly, is guesswork, but we do have the results from the minor leagues to guide us. The gist of it is I raised stolen base attempts for all players by 25% (which obviously makes a bigger difference for guys who steal 20 bases than guys who steal 2)"
Subsequently Davenport went on to track the trend midway through spring training and found that attempts were up 28% in the Cactus League in Arizona and a whopping 52% in the Grapefruit League in Florida. Successful steals were up 43% in Arizona and 62% in Florida as well.
Based on the this data, it's safe to say there will be a lot of base stealing in MLB compared to previous years and the changes will benefit some teams more than others. As Davenport points out, teams that are more likely to run in the first place will see a bigger benefit. The Diamondbacks are certainly one of those teams.
The Diamondbacks are projected by Davenport to steal 184 bases as a team. That's the 3rd highest projection in MLB. Here are the top six
| Team | Stolen Bases |
|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians | 197 |
185 | |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 184 |
Kansas City Royals | 183 |
Tampa Bay Rays | 179 |
Texas Rangers | 178 |
The top projected base stealers on the team are expected to be Jake McCarthy (44 SB, 5 CS), Corbin Carroll (36 SB, 4 CS) and Josh Rojas (29 SB, 3 CS).
The Diamondbacks didn't necessarily run a lot in spring training however. Their 25 team stolen bases ranked just 15th in MLB. Asked about that fact on Monday afternoon manager Torey Lovullo indicated they were holding back for competitive advantage.
"We didn't want to tip our hand, to be honest with you. It's not going to be rocket science. We made a decision to remain very neutral, but trust me we were working on things behind the scenes as hard as anybody."
In addition to the fact they have so many fast young players, they also have arguably the best base running coach in the business in Dave McKay. They surely have leaned heavily on him to figure out the best way to exploit this aspect of the new rules. Perhaps Lovullo was alluding to that when he went on to say:
"We've just got to get the lay of the land, we have to see how certain teams have adjusted to holding runners on, what their schedule is. We do a lot of things right here by prepping and paying attention. We've just got to get some data, get some information."
When it comes to the running game, Lovullo left no doubt the team will be aggressive
We're coming, we're going to come at you.
At the end of the day, the most important things that correlate most closely with run scoring are still going to be getting on base, hitting for power, and good situational hitting. But with the stolen base reintroduced into the mix as an important feature of the game again, it should bring added excitement, and hopefully an edge for the Diamondbacks as well.
