Diamondbacks at Twins Preview Game No. 111

The Diamondbacks are in Minnesota for the weekend to take on the Twins. First pitch tonight is 5:10 P.M. MST. This will be the D-backs first visit to the Twin Cities since August of 2017.

Minnesota has a 56-54 record and are in first place in the AL Central with a 2.5 game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. The D-backs are 57-53, and sit in third place in the NL West, 4.0 games behind the Giants and 6.5 games behind the Dodgers. They are also 1.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Pitching Matchup

Merrill Kelly, 9-5, 3.23 ERA in 106 innings pitched is making his third start since coming off the injured list due to a blood clot in his calf. He was very sharp in his first game back, but in his last outing he gave up three runs in five innings to the Mariners, taking the loss in a 4-0 shutout of the Diamondbacks. While he walked just two batters, one of them drove in a run in the first inning. He gave up a homer in the second, putting his team in a 3-0 hole that they couldn't climb out of.

Bailey Ober, RHP 6-5, 3.19 ERA in 99 innings pitched is coming off a very rough outing in Kansas City, allowing six runs in four innings. Prior to that he had allowed more than three runs in just two other starts and and had a 2.76 ERA. He's given up three runs or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts and failed to complete five innings only once.

Ober has battled some injuries in his career so far. In 2021 his solid rookie season ended early with a hip issue. Last year a groin injury sidelined him twice and limited him to just 11 starts. He didn't make his season debut this year until April 23rd, starting the year in Triple-A. Despite all that, in 48 career starts he's 11-11 with a 3.57 ERA, or 118 ERA.

Ober throws a low 90's four seamer, a change up, slider and occasional curveball. The changeup is far and away his best pitch which he uses to keep left handed batters off balance and induce swing and miss. He has reverse splits with a .621 OPS against vs. left hand batters and .720 OPS against RHB.

Lineups

Corbin Carroll, who is batting 3rd and playing center field tonight, was announced as the Diamondbacks recipient of the 2023 heart and hustle award. Tommy Pham is in left field while Lourdes Gurriel Jr will DH. Earlier today I detailed the D-backs batting and pitching slumps over the last 30 days. The slumped deepened against the Giants in San Francisco, as they hit just .175 and scored only nine runs in the four game series, including getting shut out yesterday.

Marquee free agent signing Carlos Correa has been a huge disappointment this year batting just .223 with a .686 OPS and 12 homers in 98 games. Correa exercised his opt out of his contract with the Twins last year to become a free agent. Twice he signed much larger deals only to have them nixed due to medical concerns, first by the Giants and then the Mets, before ultimately rejoining the Twins for six years, $200 million.

The Twins best hitter this year has been second baseman Edouard Julien who has a .286/.371/.510 slash line including 10 homers in 192 at bats. Joey Gallo, who had two homers last year against Merrill Kelly while playing for the Dodgers is batting .179 but has a 99 OPS+ thanks to 17 homers on the year.

Bullpens

The D-backs have yet to give their new closer Paul Sewald a save opportunity. In fact he hasn't appeared in a game yet. Former Diamondbacks farm hand Jhoan Duran, he of the 104 MPH fastball, has 19 saves for the Twins and a 2.95 ERA. Emilio Pagan and Griffin Pax provide solid right hand set up.