Farewell to a legend?

The Diamondbacks are in Detroit for game two of a three game series against the Tigers this morning. First pitch is 10:10 A.M. Arizona Time, 1:10 P.M. Eastern. Last night the D-backs won 11-6 behind Corbin Carroll's first two homer game, including his first grand slam. They are busy tearing through the softer part of their schedule, winning three in a row and nine of their last 11 to move to 38-25, 2.5 games clear of the Dodgers in the NL.

The Tigers have lost seven in a row and nine of their last 10. Despite being decimated by injuries and being nine games under .500, at 26-35, A.J. Hinch still has the Tigers just 4.5 games out in the AL Central. The Twins are in first place there with just 32-32 record.

Lineups

Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera (.307 lifetime B.A, 507 homers) is in the lineup batting 7th at DH for the Tigers. This is likely the last time the Diamondbacks will ever face him. In the final year of his contract and making $32 million he is both an icon and a cautionary tale when it comes to long term deals.

Cabrera signed an 8 yr/ $248M contract extension in March of 2014 following his triple crown season. That extension kicked in starting in 2016 for his age 33 season. In the first year of that deal he was still great, batting .316 with 38 homers and a 155 OPS+. But over the next seven years since 2017 he has just a .260/.328/.380, .708 OPS slash line with 60 homers in 634 games. He's been worth negative -2.8 WAR over that span. Now 40 years old he's batting .202 with zero homers in 112 PA.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is back in the lineup at DH for Arizona after missing four games with a groin strain. Red hot Emmanuel Rivera is playing 3rd base and batting fifth. He has seven multi hit games in his last 11 starts, and since May 23rd is 19 for 45 (.422) with five doubles and eight RBI.

Pitching Matchup

Ryne Nelson has a problem. Despite a mid 90's fastball he's not striking anyone out. Out of 120 MLB starters with at least 40 innings pitched, Nelson has the second lowest strikeout percentage (13.9%) and K/9 ratio (5.4/9) of any pitcher in the league. Only the Guardians Cal Quantrill has lower strikeout rates.

Nelson throws five pitches. Against right hand batters he attacks with four seam, slider, and cutter. Against left hand batters it's four seam, changeup, curveball. He's fastball heavy against either side, throwing the four seam 55% of the time. The cutter against righties and the curveball against lefties have been his least effective pitches. He might be able to sharpen the command and movement of the slider and changeup by throwing them more and reducing his less effective cutter and curveball.

Lefty Matthew Boyd has been in the league for nine years now. The first seven were with the Tigers. He was non tendered at the end of 2021 after suffering a flexor tendon injury which ultimately required surgery. Signed by the Giants and traded to the Mariners at the deadline, he pitched only 13 innings last year. He signed back with the Tigers on a one year deal for $10M this past off season.

Boyd has a career 4.92 ERA and has registered just nine WAR 170 career games. He had a couple of years where he was roughly a league average innings eater in 2018-19. But outside of that his career has been somewhat of a disappointment. Still, he carries a 4.35 FIP this year, and still throws a high spin four seamer in the low 90's and mixes speeds with a slider, changeup, and curveball to induce soft contact, which he can do fairly well at times. D-backs right handed bats need to wait him out today and not be too aggressive, which he feeds off of.