D-backs Hope to Repeat Past Success Vs. Spencer Strider
The Diamondbacks and Braves square off in game two of a three game set tonight at Chase Field, first pitch 7:10 P.M. Arizona took the opener last night 3-2 in a pitching duel between Merrill Kelly and Charlie Morton.
The D-backs(35-23) share the best record in the National League as well as first place in the NL West with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves are 33-24, and 3.5 games up over the New York Mets in the NL East.
On paper this game looks like a pretty big mismatch. According to the website fivethirtyeight.com the Braves have a 61% to chance of winning to the D-backs 39%. That's a very high win% for a road team, and is due to the pitching matchup
Pitching Matchup
Jack Sommers
Spencer Strider is one of the most exciting pitchers in MLB. His four seam fastball averages over 97 MPH, and he has a devastating wipeout slider that has an incredible 57% whiff rate. That's the highest of any full time starting pitcher. Strider leads qualified MLB starters with a 15.0 K/9 ratio and 41.6% strikeout percentage. Both would be MLB records if he ends up there at the end of the season.
He can be scored on, but only when he's not quite landing his pitches for strikes and issues a few walks, but even then that's not a given. He's walked three batters in six of his 11 starts, but in two of those didn't allow any runs. His only real weakness is he tends to throw a lot of pitched and is often done after the 5th inning. Even then though the Braves are 9-2 in his starts. The one gleam of hope the D-backs have is they actually got to Strider last year on May 30th at Chase Field, scoring five runs in 4.1 innings in a 6-2 Arizona victory.
Ryne Nelson is having an up and down rookie season. He actually got the win in his previous outing despite giving up five runs in five innings. Prior to that he had a string of no decisions, despite pitching well in several of them.
It's been a mixed bag up and down. Nelson has failed to complete five innings only twice in 11 outings. But he's only completed the sixth inning three times and has yet to pitch into the 7th. The main issue is command. When he has the fastball command, he's not landing his breaking pitches. When he's landing the breaking pitches, the fastball command seems lacking. If he can somehow get it to click and get his repertoire in sync we could see sudden improvement.
Lineups
Jack Sommers
Pavin Smith homered against Strider in the game last year and is back in the leadoff spot in the order. Christian Walker is getting the night off against Strider, with Emmanuel Rivera taking over at first base for the evening. Ketel Marte had his 30 game on base streak snapped last night. Marte has fairly large platoon splits, as he has through most of his career. But at this stage of his career it's untenable for him to abandon switching hitting. He actually tried in a few games of winter ball this past winter, but quickly gave it up as he realized he could not pick up the ball at all against right handers batting right handed. He remains a slightly above average hitter against righties but he's a lefty killer.
Atlanta is running out almost the same lineup as last night, except Marcel Ozuna is in at DH in place of Travis d'Arnaud. Ozuna is having a bounce back season in the power, smashing 11 homers in 167 PA, but is batting just .213 with a .293 OBP. Eddie Rosario, who had a two homer, three-hit game last night is 7-19, .368 in his last five games.
Bullpens
D-backs: Drey Jameson is fully rested now and should be available to come in mid game should Nelson need early relief. Andrew Chafin last pitched on May 29th and should be all gassed up and ready to go in the 9th inning tonight if the D-backs have a save opportunity. It's notable that Jameson and Chafin are among the four pitchers (all relievers) that have a higher Whiff rate on the slider than Strider. Jameson's 62% is 2nd highest in MLB, and Chafin 60% is third. Scott McGough threw 40 pitches on May 30th but should be available tonight to help bridge the set up innings.
Braves: The only Braves reliever that worked yesterday was Colin McHugh, throwing seven pitches. They had an off day on June 1st, so should have full availability from their entire bullpen.
