Former and Current D-backs on Future Hall of Fame Ballots

Hall of Fame weekend in Cooperstown is coming up from July 21st to 24th. Scott Rolen was voted in by the BBWAA and Fred McGriff was voted in by the Contemporary Baseball Committee.

This made me think about players that have played for the Diamondbacks who might be on the BBWAA ballot within the next 6 to 8 years. The two former D-back in the Hall of Fame are Randy Johnson, who was elected by the BBWAA on the first ballot for the class of 2015 and Roberto Alomar, who played very briefly with the team in 2004. Johnson's overwhelming case included 303 wins, five Cy Young awards, four straight while playing for the D-backs, and 4,875 strikeouts.

Alomar's played for seven teams in his career but only 38 with the D-backs in his final major league season.

There are three former and one current D-back players that the writers will likely have a chance to vote on within the next 6-8 years. As all four of these players are still active, we can only estimate when they will retire and appear on the ballot. Here is where they rank in terms of how I handicap them to be elected by the BBWAA

Max Scherzer: 100% LOCK

Scherzer was drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2006 and made his electric major league debut in 2007, throwing 4.1 perfect innings in relief, striking out seven of the 13 batters he faced. In two seasons with the Diamondbacks he made 37 starts and had nine relief appearances, going 9-15 record with a 3.86 ERA, (117 ERA+). Concerns around his pitching mechanics and potential for shoulder injury led then general manager Josh Byrnes to make an ill fated three team trade, dealing Scherzer to the Detroit Tigers, getting back Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson.

While Kennedy had a couple of good season with the D-backs, including going 21-4 in 2011 to lead the team to a division title, suffice to say that was one of the all time trade mistakes. Jackson lasted just half a season with Arizona. Scherzer meanwhile went on to break out with the Tigers, eventually winning the first of his three Cy Young awards in 2013. He would go on to win his other two more with the Nationals and finish in the top five in the voting six other times.

Scherzer's career win total of 209 through this season so far may look light to some traditionalists, but his .666 win percentage is the 5th highest all time for pitchers with at least 300 starts. (Scherzer has 438 career starts.) That win percentage combined with his dominance in the Cy Young voting will be more than enough. He also has 73 career WAR and is still adding to that total pitching for the Mets the last two seasons. He has a player option for $43 million in 2024. Should he choose to retire after next year, he would turn up on the Ballot in 2029 for the class of 2030. Max Scherzer will be voted into the Hall of Fame. The only question is whether he makes it in on the first ballot or not.

Zack Greinke: 90% Near Surety

Greinke's case is a combination of a couple of very high peaks, and a compilation of a lot of solid, well above average seasons. He entered the league in 2004 with the Kansas City Royals, but it took him a couple of years to get going. That was due in large part due to dealing with social anxiety disorder that he was diagnosed with in 2006. He was able to overcome it and proceeded to put up a Hall of Fame caliber career.

He was a well above average pitcher for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and then in 2009 won the Cy Young with one of the most dominant seasons in recent history. He went 16-8 with a league leading 2.16 ERA in 229 innings. Greinke's 10.4 Baseball Reference WAR that season is the last year any pitcher has passed the 10 WAR threshold. Nobody had done it for seven years prior either, with Johnson being the last in 2002.

From 2010 through 2014 he put up five very good seasons going 73-37 with a 3.38 ERA. In 2015 he reached another peak with the Dodgers, going 19-3 and leading the league with a 1.66 ERA and 8.9 Baseball Reference WAR. That total has only been topped by Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom in 2018. That earned him a six year, $204 million contract with the Diamondbacks. While he never quite reached that peak again, he was more than solid, going 55-29 with a 3.40 ERA with Arizona.

He has continued to add to his resume since leaving Arizona. He has 224 wins, a .599 win percentage. A terrific all around athlete, he has six Gold Gloves and was one of the best hitting pitchers when not playing in a DH league, earning two Silver Slugger awards. His career total of 77 WAR pitching, hitting and fielding combined are more than enough to put him over the top. In addition Greinke has been an entertaining and creative pitcher who learned how to excel at a high level even after his velocity declined. He might retire after this season and be on the ballot one year earlier than Scherzer. If he doesn't make it in on the first ballot, I think he'll have to wait a couple of years as he might have votes taken away by Max in year two on the ballot. If Max goes in on year one, then Greinke should make it shortly after that.

Paul Goldschmidt 75%, still some work to do

Goldschmidt is the greatest position player ever to don a Diamondbacks uniform, dominating the first base position since he entered the league. Traded to the Cardinals in the 2018-2019 off season, he went on to win an MVP award last year with Cardinals, after several near misses, finishing second twice and third once with the D-backs.

Goldschmidt has been an all round great player, hitting for average, power, and on base. His career rate stats of 295/.390/.524, .913 OPS, and 144 OPS+, slash line is one of the best in baseball history among first baseman that have at least 5000 plate appearances and 60% of their time at first base. He ranks 12th all time in OPS and 10th all time in OPS+. Report Link

He is also one of the best defensive first baseman all time, (+58 runs saved) ranking 18th, and best base running first basemen, (+27 runs) ranking 3rd. It's all added up to 61 WAR and counting, which also ranks 12th all time among first basemen. He is still a productive player for the Cardinals, batting .285 with 16 homers, a 130 OPS+ and 2.6 WAR in 92 games. Signed through the end of the 2024 season it's not known if Goldschmidt will retire young after his age 36 season or if he will continue playing.

The issue for Goldschmidt's candidacy is that his career is still light in terms of games played, (1712), plate appearances, (7366) and therefore counting stats like home runs (331) and RBI (1091). Many voters may look to those homer and RBI totals rather than the rate and WAR stats bolstered by defense and base running when deciding on a first baseman's case. It's very easy to imagine him falling short of 400 homers should he retire early and voters holding that against him. He is also hurt by comparisons to Todd Helton, who has somewhat similar career numbers but has so far fallen short on the writer's ballot.

While I personally believe he should be an easy choice, not only because of his overall excellence on the field, but also because of his tremendous character and reputation off the field. He is a model citizen of the game, leading by example, work ethic, and dedication. Having never met him personally, I speak with many people in the industry who know him well, some quite intimately. To a person, they all insist he is a Hall of Fame human being. That should count too.

Evan Longoria: 10%, Long Shot

Longoria, now 37 is filling a platoon bench role for the Diamondbacks. His career got off to a very strong start over his first six seasons. Playing for the Tampa Bay Rays, he averaged .275 with 27 homers and 91 RBI while winning Rookie of the Year and two Gold Gloves. That added up to 36 WAR, or 6-WAR per year and had him on a Hall of Fame track. Over the last 10 years he fell off that track however. He's been mostly solid, above average, batting .258 with 18 homers and 61 RBI per year along with 109 OPS+. He's added 23 more WAR to his career total bringing it up to 59.

That is very near the cut line for career third basemen, but it seems very unlikely he will get over the line. It took Rolen quite a few years to get voted in with 70 career WAR. Longoria ranks 18th in career JAWS at the position. That is a metric that looks at both peak and total career. He gets a boost due to his very high peak at the start of his career. Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado are likely to pass him in the next couple of years however, and he'll settle in around 20th on that list. There are five players above him on the JAWS list that are not in the HOF. It can be argued that third base is under represented, but that's not likely to change overnight.

I think "Longo" will come up short, but we shouldn't forget how great a player he was first the first half of his career.