How Hard Should the Diamondbacks Pursue Matt Chapman?

The team needs help at third base and it's not likely to come cheap

It's hardly been a secret that the Diamondbacks require an upgrade at the third base position. The team has deployed a carousel of players to man the position over the last few years, and none have been able to establish themselves as a reliable option. The defense was not so much the issue, as Arizona ranked middle of the pack in MLB in 2023, registering  +2 defensive runs saved in aggregate. The position typically requires a combination of defense and power however and the D-backs ranked 27th in MLB with a lowly .644 OPS from third base.

GM Mike Hazen has made clear in interviews throughout the summer and into the offseason that upgrading the position is a priority. Recently Michael McDermott gave us a rundown  of some potential candidates, including three free agents and three potential trade targets. 

Potential Targets for the Diamondbacks at Third Base

Rumors surrounding one of those options, Matt Chapman have been particularly sticky, and keep resurfacing. It makes sense that Hazen would have his baseball operations team make inquiry with Chapman's agent, Scott Boras, to find out what the current asking price is.  Chapman has been one of the best third basemen in the league dating back to his rookie season in 2017.  While he's never hit for high average, his outstanding defense has produced four gold gloves.  That defense, coupled with his home run power and willingness to take a walk are just the elements the D-backs have lacked from the position. 

There are a number of caveats to his free agency however, and the D-backs would be wise to exercise caution and not push too hard.  First of all he's going to be 31 years old next season.  While not yet in decline, he appears past his prime.  It's been a over four years since he was a borderline MVP candidate in 2018-2019. Over the last three seasons his triple slash is .226/.322/.420.  His .743 OPS over that period is roughly 8% better than league average and a full 100 points lower than the the .841 OPS he posted his first three seasons. 

During his first three years in the league he struck out in just 24% of his plate appearances. That has jumped to 29% over the previous three seasons.  After averaging +23 defensive runs saved over his first three seasons, he's averaged  +8 over the last three. That's still a very good player, as he's averaging 3.8 WAR since 2021.  

The question is how fast will he start to decline from here, and how much will a team that signs him end up paying for past production. Steamer projections published at Fangraphs have him being just 3% better than average at the plate and producing roughly 2.6 WAR in a full season in 2024.  It's not a given that his agent will be able to extract the highest imaginable cost. A cursory google search turns up a several websites all projecting he gets a six year deal, with the contract value ranging between $103-$150 million. That means tying  Chapman up through his age 36 season at anywhere from $17M to $25M per year.  These seem high.

If D-backs owner Ken Kendrick is about to raise annual payroll above $150M and KEEP IT THERE for the foreseeable future,  then why not go after him?  He's a really good player. But if their payroll is only going to get back to the levels they were at for 2019-2020, around $120-$125 million, then signing Chapman to anything close to the projected dollar amounts would be ill advised. It would simply be too high a percentage of the payroll going to an aging veteran, and would cripple the franchise should he enter severe decline prematurely.  The risks are too great without a much higher payroll structure. 

They should continue to kick the tires and see if his asking price drops later. Four years, $60 million would be a reasonable investment for the D-backs, and if payroll goes up substantially, perhaps a 5 year, $80 million  deal would make sense. The odds are he signs for a lot more however, which is fine. Let another team overpay for past performance. The D-backs don't need to go down that path again. 

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